THE BASIS POINT

51k Jobs Lost In July, 463k Lost In 2008 (Charts), Unemployment Up To 5.7%

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics showed non-farm payroll report showed that the economy lost 51,000 jobs in July, which was the seventh straight month and the eighth time since WWII we’ve had a streak this long. According to CNBC, every other time occurred during a recession. Just yesterday, GDP was revised negative for Q42007 and since a recession is two negative quarters of GDP growth, Q1 revisions next quarter may reveal we’ve been in a recession all this time.

July unemployment grew to 5.7%, up .5% from two months ago and up 1% from one year ago. What’s not shown in this number is that the number of people who have been reduced to part time employment has risen by about 1.4 million over the past year. Chart 1 below shows the economy has lost 463,000 jobs since the losing streak began. Chart 2 below shows which industries jobs were lost or gained. Here is the full July Employment Report.

Also of note is the discrepancy between the BLS jobs report and the ADP jobs report, which is an ongoing issue. A couple days ago, we discussed how July ADP estimates called for 60,000 jobs lost and showed 9,000 jobs gained. Then the BLS report shows 51,000 jobs lost. Once again, ADP, despite their wide pool of data to draw from–they provide payroll services to 24 million people–they still miss the mark month after month.

CHART 1: MONTHLY JOB GAIN/LOSS 1/07 TO 7/08

Job Stats January 2007 to July 2008

CHART 2: JULY 2008 JOBS BY SECTOR

Jobs by Sector July 2008

 

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