Fundamentals 7/21: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Home Prices
Initial Jobless Claims
-418,000 week ended July 16, the 16th week above 400k
-Up 10k from previous week’s revised 408,000
-4-week moving average 421,250
-Down 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 424,000
-This is a chart of Initial Jobless Claims since March 2009
-See colored line showing that we got below 400,000 in the 1Q2011 and then jobs market hit a wall
Home Prices
-FHFA Price Index Month/Month +0.4%, 2nd straight monthly increase
-FHFA Price Index Year/Year -6.3%
-These are prices on homes with Fannie/Freddie loans
-Details are here.
Leading Economic Indicators
-Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators: +0.3%
-Leading Indicators is calculated from 10 components with Weights as follows:
-Average weekly hours, manufacturing 27.37%
-Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance 3.22%
-Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials 8.17%
-Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance 7.17%
-Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods 1.95%
-Building permits, new private housing units 2.64%
-Stock prices, 500 common stocks 3.70%
-Money supply, M2 32.30%
-Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds 1.052%
-Index of consumer expectations 2.96%
-The problem has been that the enormous increase in M2 which is nearly one-third of LEI has done little to stimulate GDP.
Philadelphia Fed Survey
-General Business Conditions Index was +3.2 compared to a previous of -7.
-This is a leading indicator of Industrial Production
–Details here.
