THE BASIS POINT

Why Rates Didn’t Rise Despite Better Jobs Report

 

Rates rose then recovered after this morning’s BLS report showed the economy added 200k non-farm payrolls in December versus expectations of 150k. November was revised from 120,000 to 100,000 new jobs created and October was revised from 100,000 to 112,000. This figure doesn’t count actual people, it counts how many companies opened or closed, then uses that data to estimate the number of jobs gained or lost. Unemployment dropped to 8.5% from 8.6% according to a different part of the jobs report called the ‘Household Survey’ which counts people. CHARTS BELOW.

Rates rise when mortgage bonds (MBS) sell, and today’s trend continues a two month-theme: Mortgages sell right after better economic releases and EU aid news, then recover. The 3.5% Fannie Mae coupon—a key benchmark lenders use to price consumer rates—was down 30 basis points in early trading and is now up 23 basis points. Impending EU trouble (and MBS-focused QE3 rumors) have tempered—and reversed—selloffs to keep rates from spiking from current record-low levels.

More in WeeklyBasis recap/outlook tomorrow, and here’s a deeper dive on today’s numbers.

 

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Comments [ 1 ]
  1. I would like to comment about the current condition of the american economy. This is one of the hardest periods in the countries history. Their does not seem to be any consensus about the trends for the economy one week the economic news is good the next week its bad. Their seems to be no consistency what so ever when it comes to economic matters. Mcdonald’s  not to long ago hired fifty or sixty thousand people out of one million that applied maybe mcdonald’s should change their old saying you deserve a break today at mcdonald’s to you deserve a job today at mcdonald’s

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