September 2012

Real Personal Income, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment All Lower

Personal Income and Outlays (August 2012) Personal Income – Month/Month +0.1% Consumer Spending – Month/Month +0.5% PCE Price Index — Month/Month +0.4% Core PCE price index – Month/Month 0.1% Nominal Income was up slightly.  Real (inflation adjusted) income was down. Higher gas prices made real income lower.  Factoring out food and gas real income was

Real Personal Income, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment All Lower

Personal Income and Outlays (August 2012) Personal Income – Month/Month +0.1% Consumer Spending – Month/Month +0.5% PCE Price Index — Month/Month +0.4% Core PCE price index – Month/Month 0.1% Nominal Income was up slightly.  Real (inflation adjusted) income was down. Higher gas prices made real income lower.  Factoring out food and gas real income was

Initial Jobless down. GDP, Durable Goods, and Pending Home Sales Weak.

Jobs Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/22/2012) – Initial Claims 359,000.  Previous revised up to 385,000 – 4-week Moving Average 374,000.  Previous was 378,500. This would be good news except for the following. GDP (2ndQ2012)   – 2ndQ2012 GDP was revised downward from +1.7% to +1.3%.  There are two distinct issues:  1) what is happening

New Home Sales Flat

Housing New Home Sales (August 2012) – 373,000 Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate – Previous was 374,000 Mortgage Bankers Association Applications (week ended 9/21/2012) Purchase Index – Week/Week +1.0% Refinance Index – Week/Week +3.0% Composite Index – Week/Week +2.8% Bloomberg headlines with “Sales of New U.S. Homes Hover Near a Two-Year High” which I suppose is

Two Regional Fed Reports Show Weakening

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (August 2012) – Index Level was -0.87.  Previous was -0.12 – 3 Month Moving Average was -0.47 This data is weak showing declines in Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization and indicative of wear 3rdQ2012 GDP growth. Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (September 2012) – Business Activity Index was -0.9. 

Two Regional Fed Reports Show Weakening

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (August 2012) – Index Level was -0.87.  Previous was -0.12 – 3 Month Moving Average was -0.47 This data is weak showing declines in Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization and indicative of wear 3rdQ2012 GDP growth. Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (September 2012) – Business Activity Index was -0.9.