December 2012

Manufacturing up in Texas

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (December 2012) – Business Activity Index 6.8.  Previous was -2.8. – Production Index 2.7. Previous was 1.7. – Employment Index -1.0  

New Home Sales Rise. Consumer Confidence Falls.

Jobless Claims (week ended 12/22/2012) – Initial Claims 350,000.  Previous was revised to 362,000 – 4-week Moving Average 356,750 Data for last week may not be reliable. There were 2 days off and data was collected for only 31 states.  The others were estimated. New Home Sales (November 2012) – Sales were 377,000 (seasonally adjusted,

Home Prices up. Chain Store Sales Disappoint.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (October 2012) – 20-city, Seasonally Adjusted – Month/Month +0.7% – 20-city, Not Seasonally Adjusted – Month/Month -0.1% – 20-city, Not Seasonally Adjusted – Year/Year +4.3% It is my belief that home prices are rising because of lack of supply elasticity. There are still too many people with no equity and this eliminates

Personal Spending Modestly Positive. Inflation Contained.

Personal Income and Outlays (November 2012) Personal Income – Month/Month +0.6%. Previous was +0.0%. Consumer Spending – Month/Month  +0.4%. Previous was -0.2% PCE Price Index — M/M  -0.2% Core PCE price index – Month/Month  +0.0% Personal Income – Year/Year  +4. % Consumer Spending – Year/Year +3.5% PCE Price Index — Year/Year +1.4% Core PCE price

Government Spending Pads GDP. Existing Home Sales up.

GDP (3rdQ2012) – Real GDP – Quarter/Quarter  +3.1% – GDP price index – Quarter/Quarter  +2.7% – Final sales of domestic goods was +2.4% The previous iteration of 3rdQ2012 GDP was estimated at +2.7%.  2ndQ2012 had been +1.7%.  The final sales of domestic goods is the best measure of economic health becaue it is all about

Housing Starts and Mortgage Applications Down

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/14/2012) Purchase Index Week/Week -5.0% Refinance Index Week/Week -14.0% Composite Index Week/Week -12.3% Purchase application fell after 5 weeks of gains.  Rates drive refinancing. I believe that we are seeing the premium in prices in the Treasury market (lower yields and rates) which was created by the fiscal cliff angst

Housing Starts and Mortgage Applications Down

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/14/2012) Purchase Index Week/Week -5.0% Refinance Index Week/Week -14.0% Composite Index Week/Week -12.3% Purchase application fell after 5 weeks of gains.  Rates drive refinancing. I believe that we are seeing the premium in prices in the Treasury market (lower yields and rates) which was created by the fiscal cliff angst