Wild Swings in Mortgage Applications.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/16/2014)

– Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -10.0%, +12.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, and -5.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week +22.0%. Previous weeks were +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, -13%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -11.0% -6.0%, and -7.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week +14.2%. Previous weeks were +49.1%, -9.1%, +0.9%, -3.3%, +7.3%, -7.3%, -4.3%, +4.9%, -0.9%, -2.6%, and -6.6%.

I have no explanation for the large swings in the Purchase data.  It could be that the numbers were so low that the changes have been relatively large.  The increase in refinance applications makes sense because of the low rates we had had.

Housing Starts (December 2014)

– Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized  1,089,000. Previous was 1,043,000
– Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized  1,032,000. Previous was 1,052,000.

Housing Starts generate construction jobs and the purchase of all that goes into housing. To keep up with population growth and scrappage of old homes, Housing Starts should be 1,500,000.

I believe that housing has become so expensive in some places that there are more people living with family members than there were 7 years ago.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 1/17/2015)

– Store Sales year/year +3.0%. Previous was +3.8%.