Fundamentals Indicate Weak 1stQ GDP.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/7/2015)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted 289,000. Previous was 325,000
– New Claims unadjusted  totaled 277,179 decrease of 38,387 from the previous week
– 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  302,250. Previous was 306,000.

 

Retail Sales (February 2015)

– Retail Sales month/month -0.6%. Previous was -0.8%
– Retail Sales less autos month/month -0.1%. Previous was -1.1%
– Less Autos & Gas month/month  -0.2%. Previous was -0.1%.

This is pointing to a weak 1stQ2015 GDP.  Consumer Confidence which is supposed to forecast Retail Sales has been strong but the consumer isn’t spending more. To me the only thing this means is that  Consumer Confidence is not a good forecast of spending.

 

Import and Export Prices (February 2015)

– Export Prices month/month -0.1%
– Export Prices year/year -5.9%. Previous was -5.4%
– Import Prices month/month  +0.4%. Previous was -3.1%
– Import Prices year/year    -9.4%. Previous was -8.0%.

Imports and Exports in the next few months will be affected by the Dollar/Euro exchange rate.  The strong dollar hurts exports and helps imports and will hurt GDP.

Business Inventories  (January 2015)

– Inventories month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.0%.