THE BASIS POINT

Fundamentals Sluggish. FOMC Meeting Starts.

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 4/25/2015)

– Chain Store Sales year/year change  +1.4%. Previous was +0.8%.

 

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (February 2015)

– 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.9%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month +0.5%. Previous was -0.1%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year +5.0%. Previous was +4.5%.

Consumer Confidence  (April 2015)

– Conference Board’s Confidence metric  95.2. Previous was 101.4

Consumer Confidence is supposed to be a leading indicator of Retail Sales.  The correlation as of late has been poor.

 

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index  (April 2015)

– level change   -3. Previous was -8.
The FOMC meets today and tomorrow.  With a weak 1stQ2015 GDP expected tomorrow the only question is if the Fed will suggest when it may start raising interest rates.  The fact is that low interest rates have done little to spur growth.  The effect has been to lower the cost to service the nation’s debt.

 

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