THE BASIS POINT

BLS: Better but not Great.

 

BLS Employment Situation Report (May 2015)

– Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  +280,000  (nominal).  With the changes to the previous 2 months the gain is 312,000
– Unemployment Rate 5.5%. Previous was 5.4%
– Private Payrolls month/month   262,000. Previous was 213,000
– Participation Rate  62.9%. Previous was 62.8%
– Average Hourly Earnings month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
– Average Workweek 34.5 hours. Previous was 34.5 hours.

Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 207,000 per month. The gains in jobs remain in the same areas:  Service Producing with concentration in Leisure and Hospitality (+57,000), Retail (+31,000) and Health Care (+47,000).  Mining and logging (which includes oil workers) and construction were net -1,000.

While the number are better it is the quality of jobs as measured by wages which stimulate GDP.  Increases in Retail and Leisure and Hospitality workers have minimal impact on GDP.  Jobs such as Oil Workers and Construction generate more additional jobs.  These are muted by the decline in oil prices which has shut down more than half of the operating oil rigs and by muted Housing Starts.

 

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