THE BASIS POINT

Data and Fed not on Same Page.

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/10/2015)

– Purchase Index Week/Week  -8.0%. Previous weeks were +7.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%. -4.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, -4.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, and -3.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, -5.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, +7.0%, -12.0%, -4.0%, +0.3%, -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, and +1.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week -1.9%. Previous weeks were +4.6%, -4.7%, +1.6%, -5.5%, +8.4%, -7.6%, -1.6%, -1.5%, -3.5%, -4.6%, -2.3%, +2.3%, and -2.3%.

 
PPI-FD – Wholesale Inflation (June 2015)

– PPI-FD month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.5%
– PPI-FD year/year   -0.7%. Previous was -1.1%
– PPI-FD less food & energy month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
– PPI-FD less food & energy year/year   +0.8 %. Previous was +0.6%
– PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.3%. Previous was -0.1%
– PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year    +0.7%. Previous was +0.6%
– PPI-FD Goods month/month   +0.7%. Previous was +1.3%
– PPI-FD Goods year/year -3.7%. Previous was -4.3%
– PPI-FD Services month/month   +0.3%. Previous was +0.0%
– PPI-FD Services year/year   +0.8%. Previous was +0.6%.

The Fed appears to be intent on raising rates no matter what the inflation data says. With continued weak GDP growth I think that is a bad idea.

 
Industrial Production (June 2014)

– Production month/month  +0.3%. Previous was -0.2%
– Capacity Utilization Rate 78.4%. Previous was 78.2%
– Manufacturing month/month +0.0%. Previous was  0.0%.

While a gain of +0.3% looks nice it is worth noting that the 2 previous months were -0.2% and -0.5%.

 

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