THE BASIS POINT

Retail muted, Consumer Confidence down.

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/25/15) 

– Store Sales year/year  +1.0%. Previous was +1.2%

Consumer Spending is the heart of the U.S. economy and muted consumer spending will mute GDP growth.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (May 2015)

– 20-city, seasonally adjusted, month/month  -0.2%. Previous was revised from +0.3% to +0.0%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted, month/month  +1.1%. Previous was +1.1%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted, year/year +4.9%. Previous was +5.0%.

Prices were up but the seasonal adjustment eliminated the gains.

 

PMI Services Flash (July 2015)

– Level 55.2. Previous was 54.8.

Consumer Confidence (July 2015)

– Consumer Confidence  90.9. Previous was 99.8.

This is a large step back and in line with weakness at the retail level. This is the Confidence metric from The Conference Board.

 
Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index  (July 2015)

– Level   13. Previous was 6.

State Street Investor Confidence Index  (July 2015)

– State Street Investor Confidence Index  114.6. Previous was 127.1.

This is an interesting metric because it examines risk in investment portfolios.  When economic fundamentals weaken risk aversion is heightened and the index falls.  This index is global examining risk in 45 countries.  The decrease in risk is a consequence of, for starters, Greece and China.  Decrease in risk = getting out of equities.

 

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