Initial Jobless Low but…

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/3/2015)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted Level  263,000. Previous was 276,000
– New Claims unadjusted were 227,659 an increase of 12,543 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average  267,500. Previous was 270,500

It is of note that while layoffs have been low, job growth has been weak. Initial Jobs Claims as an indicator of the strength of the jobs market misses several important points: 1) the number of people each month who complete temporary jobs and are not eligible for unemployment is about 3 times the size of those who can collect unemployment 2) the number of people who leave their jobs is about 3/4 of the number of people who can collect unemployment 3) those unemployed making jobless claims represent only about 1/8’th of the total movement in the jobs market.

Initial Claims is a weak surrogate for the overall jobs market.

 
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (week ended 10/4/2015)

– Level  44.8. Previous was 43.0

This is another survey showing that consumers are happy with the economy.  Whether this translates into spending remains to be seen.