Declining Commodity Prices Have Consequences.

Import and Export Prices  (September 2015)

– Import Prices month/month -0.1%. Previous was -1.6%
– Export Prices month/month -0.7%. Previous was -1.4%
– Import Prices year/year -10.7%. Previous was -11.4%
– Export Prices year/year -7.4%. Previous was -7.0%

These numbers are essentially about declines in commodity prices. Exports are mostly about agricultural products and the decline in export prices is being caused by a weak economy in the EU and weakening growth in China.  Low export prices reduce GDP. Deflation is something economists and the Fed are always concerned about.  Deflation is of serious concern to those who owe debt.

The recovery in oil prices is probably temporary and crude prices are likely to fall again.  Falling crude prices threaten the economies of exporting nations which depend on their oil exports to sustain their governments.  This threatens not only the economy but also political and social order.

Wholesale Trade  (August 2015)

– Inventories month/month  +0.1%. Previous revised from -0.1% to -0.3%.

This is a GDP component and both the August data and the revision to July will take small bites out of 3rdQGDP.