Private Jobs Growth down.

MBA Mortgage Applications  (week ended 10/30/2015)

– Purchase Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +16.0%, -34.0%, +27.0%, -6.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, -4.0%, and +3.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, +9.0%, -23.0%, +24.0%, -8.0%, +18.0%, -9.0%, -10.0%, +17.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, and +3.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week  -0.8%. Previous weeks were -3.5%, +11.8%, -27.6%, +25.5%, -6.7%, +13.9%, -7.0%, -6.2%, +11.3%, +0.2%, +3.6%, and -0.1%.

Presumably, the effect caused by the spike up and then down in application consequent to the new TRID disclosure rules is now in the past.

 

ADP Private Jobs (October 2015)

– Private Jobs +182,000. Previous was +190,000.

The jobs market is not adding jobs in 2015 as it did in 2014.  Most media accounts are talking up the economy as healthy and supporting the notion that things are fine and a Fed hike in

the Fed Funds rate is the right move.  The problem is that the Fed’s charter is to pay attention to the unemployment rate and inflation and while those two metrics are fine they miss the

fact that 1) GDP growth is weak 2) the Labor Participation Rate is falling and 3) consequent to those two things the fiscal issue of debt service will get worse.

 

 

Trade Deficit (September 2015)

– Trade Deficit $40.8 billion. Previous was $48.0 billion.

Exports were up. imports were down defying the effect of the stronger US $.