Lots of Data, no Underlying Theme.

MBA Mortgage Applications  (week ended 11/20/2015)

– Purchase Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +12.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +16.0%, -34.0%, +27.0%, -6.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, and +2.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, -4.0%, +9.0%, -23.0%, +24.0%, -8.0%, +18.0%, -9.0%, -10.0%, and +17.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week -3.2%. Previous weeks were +6.2%, -1.3%, -0.8%, -3.5%, +11.8%, -27.6%, +25.5%, -6.7%, +13.9%, -7.0%, -6.2%, and +11.3%.

Purchase applications were up 24% year-on-year. To some extent the increase in purchase application represents a shift toward fewer people purchasing with all cash offers.

 
Durable Goods Orders (October 2015)

– New Orders month/month +3.0%
– New Orders year/year -4.2%
– Ex-transportation month/month +0.5%
– Ex-transportation year/year -1.0%
– Core capital goods month/month +1.3%
– Core capital goods year/year +1.8%.

The detail of this report are mixed.  It is difficult to forecast what this quarter will look like.  With the dollar appreciating exports of capital goods are pressured.  I do not see this as a sign that the factory sector will not remain pressured. This is a good month in a bad year.

 

Jobless Claims (week ended 11/21/2015)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted, annualized  260,000. Previous was 272,000
– New Claims unadjusted, totaled 305,757 an increase of 40,941 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average   271,000. Previous was 271,000

Jobless Claims remain very low.

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (October 2015)

– Personal Income month/month  +0.4%. Previous was +0.2%
– Consumer Spending month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.1%
– PCE Price Index month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.3%
– Core PCE price index month/month  +0.0%. Previous was +0.2%
– PCE Price Index year/year   +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%
– Core PCE price index year/year  +1.3%. Previous was +1.3%

Three points 1) income is up 2) spending did not increase as much as income meaning that folks are saving more or paying down debt and 3) core PCE, an important inflation gauge, remains well contained.

 

FHFA House Price Index  (September 2015)

– month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.3%
– year/year   +6.1%. Previous was 5.5%

These are prices for homes purchased with FHMA or FHLMC loans.  Home prices remain strong partly because supply is insufficient.

 
PMI Services Flash  (November 2015)

– Level  56.5.  Previous was 54.4.

 

New Home Sales (October 2015)

– New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized  495,000. Previous was 447,000.

The October gain in month/month is a recovery from a bad September.

 

Consumer Sentiment (November 2015)

-Sentiment Index  91.3. Previous was 93.1.

This is the University of Michigan Sentiment Index.  It is supposed to forecast Consumer Spending in the next 90 days.