Home Prices up.
Redbook (week ended 1/23/2016)
– Chain Store Sales year/year +1.0%. Previous was +1.4%
FHFA House Price Index (November 2015)
– month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.5%
– year/year +5.9%. Previous was +6.1%.
These are prices for homes purchased with FNMA or FHLMC loans only.
S&P Case-Shiller HPI (November 2015)
– 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month +0.9%. Previous was +0.8%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.1%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year +5.8%. Previous was +5.5%.
Because of the large difference between seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted month/month the only useful data I see here is the annual at +5.8%. We are still in a situation where Housing Starts are low, supply is limited, and prices are moving higher due to relative lack of supply.
In 4 of the 20 cities (Dallas, Denver, San Francisco and Portland) prices are at all time highs.
As to why supply is limited there are several causes: 1) zoning restrictions and other limitations imposed by local governments 2) tougher mortgage standards imposed by CFPB 3)wage stagnation.
PMI Services Flash (January 2016)
– Level 53.7. Previous was 53.7.
This is a supply side metric for the service part of the economy.
Consumer Confidence (January 2016)
– Consumer Confidence 98.1. Previous was 96.3.
This is the metric from The Conference Board. This is supposed to be a leading indicator of
Consumer Spending for the next 6 months.
Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (January 2016)
– Level 2. Previous was 6.
This metric is derived from a set of indicators coming from a survey of businesses in the area covered by the Richmond Federal Reserve.