Jobs Growth Weak, Exports Weak

BLS Employment Situation Report (January 2016)

– Nonfarm Payrolls month/month (seasonally adjusted) +151,000. Previous was +262,000
– Unemployment Rate  4.9%. Previous was 5.0%
– Private Jobs month/month change
158,000. Previous was  251,000
– Labor Participation Rate    62.7%. Previous was 62.6 %
– Average Hourly Earnings month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.0%
– Average Workweek – All Employees   34.6 hours. Previous was 34.5 hours.

If one looks inside the BLS at the raw (not seasonally adjusted data) it actually shows that 2,989,000 fewer people were working in December. This size fall in the raw data is typical of the end of the Christmas shopping season.    Seasonal adjustment are  important and appropriate.  However, I do believe that when the adjustments are 20x the headline I wonder if we are measuring jobs or the accuracy of the adjustments.

 

Trade Deficit (December 2015)

-Trade Deficit $43.4 Billion.  Previous was $42.4 billion.

The important thing here is that exports are falling.  As I have been preaching we are in a manufacturing recession.  This is not mainly our doing but a sign of something akin to global recession. The strong US $ is also hurting exports.