Indications of Upward Revision to +0.7% 4thQ2015 GDP

Retail Sales (January 2016)

– Retail Sales month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%
– Retail Sales less autos month/month  +0.1%. Previous was +0.1%
– Less Autos & Gas month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.1%.
December Retail Sales was revised up indicating that we will likely see an upward revision to the +0.7% GDP for 4thQ2015.  January’s gains Retail sales indicate a stronger 1stQ2016 GDP but this is preliminary and only 1 month.

 
Import and Export Prices  (January 2016)

– Import Prices month/month  -1.1%. Previous was -1.1%
– Export Prices month/month -0.8%. Previous was -1.1%
– Import Prices year/year -6.2%. Previous was -8.2%
– Export Prices year/year -5.7%. Previous was -6.5%

Falling oil prices keep imports prices falling and a stronger dollar hurt exports by making them more expensive and less price competitive.  Exports are also hurting as the economies of many trading partners suffer.  Trade, in general, is hurting big time.

Business Inventories (December 2015)

– Inventories month/month +0.1%. Previous was -0.1%.
This is a GDP component. With a positive, if weak, December reading and an upward revision to November this, like Retail Sales, translates into a stronger 2nd estimate of 4thQ 2015 GDP.

 

Consumer Sentiment February 2016)

– Sentiment Index  90.7. Previous was 92.5

This is The University of Michigan’s Consumer Index.