Lower Wholesale Prices Indicative of Slowing World Economic Growth?

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/8/2016)

– Purchase Index Week/Week +8.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +0.2%, -7.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, and +18.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week +11.0%. Previous weeks were +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, +16.0%, +16.0%, +0.3%, +11.0%, +19.0%, and +24.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week +10.0%. Previous weeks were +2.7%, -1.0%, -3.3%, -3.3%, +0.2%, -4.8%, -4.3%, +8.2%, +9.3%, -2.6%, +8.8%, and +9.0%.

Purchase applications were +24% year-on-year.

 

Retail Sales (March 2016)

– Retail Sales month/month  -0.3%. Previous was +0.0%
– Retail Sales less autos month/month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.0%
– Less Autos & Gas month/month  +0.1%. Previous was +0.6%.

This does not paint an attractive picture for 1stQ2016 GDP. One category which fell was auto sales which had been pumped up by subprime auto lending. Increased health care costs may be taking away from discretionary spending.

 

PPI-FD (March 2016)

– PPI-FD month/month  -0.1%. Previous was -0.2%
– PPI-FD year/year    -0.1 %. Previous was +0.0%
– PPI-FD less food & energy month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.0%
– PPI-FD less food & energy  year/year  +1.0%. Previous was +1.2%
– PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month   +0.0%. Previous was +0.1%
– PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services  year/year  +0.9%. Previous was +0.9%.

A weak world economy is evidencing as global deflation.

 

Business Inventories  (February 2016)

Inventories month/month -0.1% . Previous was -0.1%.

This is a component of GDP.  More bad news for 1stQ2016 GDP.