THE BASIS POINT

Retail Sales Show Sign of Recovering.

 

Retail Sales  (April 2016)

– Retail Sales month/month +1.3%. Previous was -0.3%
– Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.4%
– Less Autos & Gas month/month  +0.6%. Previous was +0.2%

Overall Sales recovered.  Autos Sales which had been hammered in previous months recovered.  Retail sales is the heart of GDP so this is a positive report.  The 1stQ2016 was miserable for Retail Sales.  To start producing decent GDP gains, we need the April trend to continue.

 

 

PPI-FD (April 2016)

– PPI-FD month/month  +0.2%. Previous was -0.1%
– PPI-FD year/year +0.0%. Previous was -0.1%
– PPI-FD core (less food & energy) month/month +0.1%. Previous was -0.1%
– PPI-FD  core (less food & energy) year/year  +0.9%. Previous was +1.0%
– PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.0%
– PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.9%. Previous was +0.9%

Inflation on the wholesale level remains extremely tame.

 

 

Business Inventories  (March 2016)

– Inventories month/month +0.4%. Previous was -0.1%

This is a 1stQ2016 GDP component.

Consumer Sentiment

– Sentiment Index 95.8. Previous was 89.0.

The is the University of Michigan Sentiment Index.  It is supposed to measure the consumer’s predisposition to spend in the near future.

 

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