Fundamentals Modestly Positive.
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended May 14, 2016)
– Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 278,000. Previous was 294,000
– Initial Claims unadjusted were 244,797a decrease of 17,099 from previous week
– 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 268,250. Previous was 268,250
The week-to-week is down but the 4-week average is up. There is still concern that we are seeing signs of modest weakness in jobs.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey (May 2016)
– General Business Conditions Index -1.8. Previous was -1.6.
This is a survey Index. Together the regional Fed surveys constitute a leading indicator of economic conditions.
Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (April 2016)
– Level +0.10. Previous was -0.44
– 3 Month Moving Average -0.22. Previous was -0.18
This Index is a composite of 85 pieces of data. This indicates a likely improvement in 2ndQ2016 GDP from its miserable 1stQ.
Leading Indicators (April 2016)
– Leading Indicators month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.0%.
This is a composite of ten national indicators.