THE BASIS POINT

Consumer Spending up Defying other Fundamentals.

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (April 2016)

– Personal Income month/month   +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%
– Consumer Spending month/month  +1.0%. Previous was +0.0%
– PCE Price Index month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
– Core PCE price index month/month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%
– PCE Price Index year/year  +1.1%. Previous was +0.8%
– Core PCE price index  year/year  +1.6%. Previous was +1.6%

 
S&P Case-Shiller HPI (March 2016)

– 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month +0.9%. Previous was +0.7%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month   +0.9%. Previous was +0.2%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted  year/year  +5.4%. Previous was +5.4%

Home prices have been rising because of reduced supply. Lurking in the background is the fact that because of subdued wage increases and higher health care costs there are a lot of people who cannot buy a home.

Chicago PMI (May 2016)

– Business Barometer Index  49.3. Previous was 50.4.

 

 

Consumer Confidence (May 2016)  
– Confidence 92.6. Previous was 94.7.  

This is the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence metric.  It is supposed to be a forecast of consumer spending in the next 3-6 months. For the past year and a half this correlationhas been very weak.

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (May 2016)

– Production Index  -13.1.  Previous was +5.8
– General Activity Index  -20.8.  Previous was -13.9.

The only word for this is “ugly.”

 

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