Consumer Spending up Defying other Fundamentals.
Personal Income and Outlays (April 2016)
– Personal Income month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%
– Consumer Spending month/month +1.0%. Previous was +0.0%
– PCE Price Index month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
– Core PCE price index month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%
– PCE Price Index year/year +1.1%. Previous was +0.8%
– Core PCE price index year/year +1.6%. Previous was +1.6%
S&P Case-Shiller HPI (March 2016)
– 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month +0.9%. Previous was +0.7%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month +0.9%. Previous was +0.2%
– 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year +5.4%. Previous was +5.4%
Home prices have been rising because of reduced supply. Lurking in the background is the fact that because of subdued wage increases and higher health care costs there are a lot of people who cannot buy a home.
Chicago PMI (May 2016)
– Business Barometer Index 49.3. Previous was 50.4.
Consumer Confidence (May 2016)
– Confidence 92.6. Previous was 94.7.
This is the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence metric. It is supposed to be a forecast of consumer spending in the next 3-6 months. For the past year and a half this correlationhas been very weak.
Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (May 2016)
– Production Index -13.1. Previous was +5.8
– General Activity Index -20.8. Previous was -13.9.
The only word for this is “ugly.”