THE BASIS POINT

Retail Sales +0.5%.

 

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May 2016)

– level 93.8. Previous was 93.6

 

Retail Sales (May 2016)

– Retail Sales month/month +0.5%. Previous was +1.3%
– Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%
– Less Autos & Gas month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.6%.

Growth was modest but, coming after a strong April, indicates GDP growth for 2ndQ2016. Notable is the fact that we have come to accept 2% GDP growth as something good which it is not.

 
Import and Export Prices (May 2016)

– Import Prices month/month +1.4%. Previous was +0.7%
– Export Prices month/month +1.1%. Previous was +0.5%
– Import Prices year/year -5.0%. Previous was -5.7%
– Export Prices year/year -4.5%. Previous was -5.0%.

Export prices showed the largest increase in the past 5 years. This could be more the result of a bounce from lower prices (note the -5.0% year/year) than a genuine sign of strengthening of the world economy.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 6/11/2016)

– Chain Store Sales year/year +0.7%. Previous was +0.6%

 

Business Inventories (April 2016)

-Inventories month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.3%.

This is a GDP component.

 

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