THE BASIS POINT

Inflation on Target. Is the Jobs Market Softening?

 

Consumer Price Index (May 2016)

– CPI month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.4%
– CPI year/year +1.0%. Previous was +1.1%
– CPI core (less food & energy) month/month 0 +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%
– CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +2.2%. Previous was +2.1%

Nothing to see here.

 
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/11/2016)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted 277,000. Previous was 264,000
– New Claims unadjusted, totaled 266,706 an increase of 33,774 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average 269,250. Previous was 269,500.

The story that the jobs market is so good that the economy will follow is getting harder to sell.

 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey (June 2016)

– General Business Conditions Index 4.7. Previous was -1.8.

This is a survey index. While the overall is positive there are some concerns with the details: new orders, shipments, and employment are down. The positive reading is largely due to
higher prices and costs.

 

Current Account (1stQ2016)

– Current Account Deficit $124.7 billion. Previous was $113.4 billion.

This is the nation’s international trade deficit in goods, services, and unilateral transfers.

 

Housing Market Index (June 2016)

– Housing Market Index 60. Previous was 58.

This is from The National Association of Home Builders. These are the folks who take the risks associated with homebuilding and their perception of where the economy is going drives their
decisions.

 

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