Mixed Fundamentals

Jobless Claims (week ended 6/18/2016)

– New Claims seasonally adjusted 259,000. Previous was 277,000
– New Claims unadjusted, totaled 249,160 a decrease of 17,760 from previous
– 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 267,000. Previous was 269,250

Although Initial Jobless Claims are a small part of the total movement in and out of jobs each month this is a modest positive.

 
Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (May 2016)

– Level -0.51. Previous was +0,05
– 3 Month Moving Average -0.36. Previous was -0.25

The production component is what is weak. Industrial Production is softening.

 
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (June 2016)

– Level 51.4. Previous was 50.5.

This is a survey index.

New Home Sales (May 2016)

– New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 551,000. Previous was 586,000.

This is by comparison with April which showed a large gain.

 

Leading Indicators (May 2016)

– Leading Indicators month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.6%

This is a composite of ten other economic indicators. It should give a forecast of the economy 3-6 months into the future.

The issue I have had with this during the recovery is that its assumptions about how money supply affects economic growth have been inaccurate and money supply gets a large weight in this calculation.