Purchase Applications Flat.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/8/016)

– Purchase Index Week/Week +0.0%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -5.0%, +12.0%, -5.0%, +5.0%, -6.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, and +8.0%.
– Refinance Index Week/Week +11.0%. Previous weeks were +21.0%, -2.0%, +7.0%. -1.0%, +7.0%, -4.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, +0.5%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +3.0%. and +11.0%.
– Composite Index Week/Week +7.2%. Previous weeks were +14.2%, -2.6%, +2.9%, -2.4%, +9.3%, -4.1%, +2.3%, -1.6%, +0.4%, -3.4%, -4.1%, and +1.3%.

Almost all that I read each week in the reporting of Mortgage Applications tries to make a nexus between rates add purchase applications. The fact is that people do not suddenly decide to
buy a home because mortgage rates fell 0.125% or 0.25% in a given week. I mean “Honey rates are down 0.125%, let’s move” – not. Refis are extremely rate sensitive. Purchases would be
affected only by relatively large, extended rate increases.

 

Import and Export Prices (June 2016)

– Import Prices month/month +0.2%. Previous was +1.4%
– Export Prices month/month +0.8%. Previous was +1.2%
– Import Prices year/year -4.8%. Previous was -5.0%
– Export Prices year/year -3.5%. Previous was -4.5%.

Two words: volatility and deflation.