Cloudy Picture of Housing.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/22/016)

– Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +0.0%, +4.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -5.0%, +12.0%, -5.0%, +5.0%, -6.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, and -2.0%.
– Refinance Index Week/Week -15.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, +11.0%, +21.0%, -2.0%, +7.0%. -1.0%, +7.0%, -4.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, +0.5%, -6.0%, and -5.0%.
– Composite Index Week/Week -11.2%. Previous weeks were -1.3%, +7.2%, +14.2%, -2.6%, +2.9%, -2.4%, +9.3%, -4.1%, +2.3%, -1.6%, +0.4%, and -3.4%.

The refi index is very heavily rate dependent. It is stepping back from the large increases of 3 and 4 weeks ago. The relative flatness of Purchase Applications doe not line up with the
healthy increase in New Home Sales which clouds the view of where Housing Starts and New Home Sales are really headed.

 

Durable Goods Orders (June 2016)

– New Orders month/month -4.0%. Previous was -2.8%
– New Orders year/year -6.4%. Previous was +2.4%
– Ex-transportation month/month -0.5%. Previous was -0.4%
– Ex-transportation year/year -3.6%. Previous was -0.7%
– Core capital goods month/month +0.2%. Previous was -0.5%
– Core capital goods year/year -3.7%. Previous was -3.9%

This data indicates the ongoing weakness of the industrial part of the U.S. economy. To some extent this is about the slowdown of economic activity in in China and Europe.

 

Pending Home Sales Index (June 2016)

– Pending Home Sales Index month/month +0.2%. Previous was -3.7%
This does not indicate strength and like the MBA Applications data seems to indicate a step back from the sizable gain in New Home Sales reported yesterday. This should be a leading
indicator of home sales. Data comes from the National Association of Realtors.