July Retail Sales Weak.

 

Retail Sales (July 2016)

– Retail Sales month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.8%
– Retail Sales less autos month/month -0.3%. Previous was +0.9%
– Less Autos & Gas month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.8%

This is unexpectedly weak. Weakness was pervasive including supermarkets, restaurants, and building supplies. Auto sales were up but auto sales have a tendency to decrease future
discretionary spending as folks make monthly payments on auto loans. E-commerce sales were up.

Retail Sales are the core of GDP. June numbers were revised upward slightly with will improve the next print of 2ndQ2016 GDP but July Retail Sales point to a weak start for 3rdQ2016 GDP.
This is not an environment supportive of an FOMC rate hike any time soon.

 

 

PPI-FD (July 2016)

– PPI-FD month/month -0.4%. Previous was +0.5%
– PPI-FD year/year -0.2%. Previous was +0.3%
– PPI-FD less food & energy month/month -0.3%. Previous was +0.4%
– PPI-FD less food & energy year/year +0.7%. Previous was +1.3%
– PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.3%
– PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year +0.8%. Previous was +0.9%

Business Inventories (June 2016)

– Inventories month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%

Consumer Sentiment (August 2016)

– University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 90.4. Previous was 90.0