GDP +1.8% (annualized) for 1st Half of 2014.

2ndQ2014 GDP

– Real (inflation adjusted) GDP quarter/quarter +4.0%.  Previous was revised to -2.1%.

If we chain those, we have 1.8% annualized growth for the first 6 months of 2014.  For 2011–2013, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.0%; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 2.2%.  To me GDP growth is still too low.   It is helpful to realize that this first estimate of 2ndQ2014 GDP is a “shot in the dark.” There are only 2 of 3 months of data for Exports, Imports and Inventory spending.

Real personal consumption expenditures were +2.5%.

– GDP deflator +2.0%.  Previous was +1.3%.  This is a measure of inflation where each component is weighted according to its contribution to GDP.

ADP Private Jobs (July 2014)

– Private Jobs +218,000. Previous was +281,000.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/25/2014)  

– Purchase Index Week/Week +0.2%. Previous weeks were +0.3%, -8.0%, +4.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%. -5.2%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, and +9.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, -0.1%, +0.4%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -13.0%, +11.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, and +7.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week -2.2%. Previous weeks were  +2.4%, -3.6%, +1.9%, -0.2%, -1.0%, -9.2%, +10.3%, -3.1%, -1.2%, +0.9%, and +3.6%.

Either the housing market is suffering or folks are so wealthy that they do not need mortgages.