Author Archive

The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve gets a lot of attention but folks do not always discuss what all that it does and what it should do. The general discussion is that the Federal Reserve has a dual-mandate: keep inflation low and keep unemployment low. This misses what the Fed really does. The most important role of the […]

Durable Goods Orders Recover.

Durable Goods Orders (June 2014) – New Orders month/month +0.7%. Previous was -1.0% – Ex-transportation month/month  +0.8%. Previous was -0.1%

Purchase applcations up slightly but…

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/18/2014)   – Purchase Index Week/Week +0.3%. Previous weeks were -8.0%, +4.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%. -5.2%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, and -4.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were -0.1%, +0.4%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -13.0%, +11.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +7.0%, and +2.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +2.4%. Previous weeks […]

A Mixed bag of Fundamentals.

Consumer Price Index (June 2014) – CPI month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.4% – CPI year/year +2.1%. Previous was +2.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.3% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +1.9%. Previous was 1.9%. This shows contained inflation. It remains to be seem what the net […]

Chicago Fed Manufacturing: Growing but Slower.

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index  (June 2014) – Index level 0.12.  Previous was 0.21 – 3 Month Moving Average 0.13. Previous was 0.19. The economy is still growth but at a slower pace.  As repeated here weekly too little attention had been paid lately as to just how poor economic growth in the U.S. […]

Is the Supply Side Failing?

Is the Supply Side Failing? A question we should be seeking the answer to is “Why has economic growth been so puny lately?” We had the Great Recession which was caused by the government’s insistence that home loan lenders lower their lending standards so that more folks could afford to own a home. Banks and […]

Consumer Sentiment, Leading Indicators down.

Leading Indicators (June 2014) – Leading Indicators month/month +0.3%.  Previous was +0.7%. This is a rehash of 10 other pieces of data and has, for some time, merely reflected the Federal Reserve policy of increasing money supply and keeping rates low. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July 2014) – Consumer Sentiment 81.3.  Previous was 82.5. […]

Housing Starts down. Jobless Claims Remain Low.

Housing Starts  (June 2014) – Starts (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 893,000. Previous revised down to 985,000 – Permits (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 963,000. Previous revised up to 1,038,000. This is disappointing data.   Jobless Claims  (week ended 7/12/2014) – Initial Claims (seasonally adjusted) 302,000. Previous was 305,000 – Initial Claims (unadjusted)  totaled 369,591an increase of 47,079 from […]

PPI up, Mortgage Applications down.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/11/2014)   – Purchase Index Week/Week -8.0%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%. -5.2%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, and -3.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -0.1%. Previous weeks were +0.4%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -13.0%, +11.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, and -7.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -3.6%. Previous weeks […]

Flat Data.

ICSC-Goldman Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/12/2014) – Store Sales week/week +0.1%. Previous was +1.7% – Store Sales year/year +4.5%. Previous was +3.3% Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/12/2014) – Store Sales year/year +4.1%. Previous was +6.0%. Retail Sales (June 2014) – Retail Sales month/month +0.2%. Previous revised to +0.5% – Retail Sales less […]

 
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