Author Archive

1stQ2015 GDP -0.7%

GDP (1stQ2015) – Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized  -0.7%. Previous was +0.2%. – GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized -0.1%. Previous was -0.1%, When quarterly GDP is first issued is has 3 real months of Consumer Spending but only 2 months of Business Spending on Inventories and Investments and only 2 months of […]

Initial Jobless Claims Remain Low.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/23/2015) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 282,000. Previous was 275,000 – New Claims  unadjusted were 251,435  an increase of 7,950 previous – 4-week Moving Average  271,500. Previous was 266,500. Jobless Claims remain low but do not represent the overall picture of the Jobs Market. Pending Home Sales Index (April 2015) […]

Purchase Mortgage Applications Indicate Flat Housing.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/22/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were  -4.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, and +5.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were +0.3%, -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, and -0.2%. – Composite Index Week/Week -1.6%. Previous […]

Fundamentals Mixed with no Clear Signs.

Durable Goods Orders (April 2015) – New Orders month/month  -0.5%. Previous was +5.1%. – Ex-transportation month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.6%. DGO have been weak lately.  The gains in ex-trans for 2 months is a sign of hope.   FHFA House Price Index (March 2015) – month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.6%. – year/year  +5.2%. Previous was […]

Fundamentals Indicate Sluggish Growth.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/16/2015) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 274,000. Previous was 264,000 – New Claims unadjusted, totaled 242,794 a decrease of 88 from previous. – 4-week Moving Average   266,250. Previous was 261,750 Layoffs remain low but represent less that 20% of the dynamics of the entire Jobs Market. Chicago Federal Reserve National […]

Mortgages, Who Needs Them?

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/15/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were  -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, and -7.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +0.3%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, and +1.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -1.5%. Previous […]

Housing Starts up Nicely but…

Housing Starts (April 2015)   – Housing Starts in units, Seasonally Adjusted, annualized  1,135,000 – Permits in units, Seasonally Adjusted, annualized 1,143,000 This is an increase of 20.2% from February.  Single-family Starts were 733,000 a 16.7% increase from the previous month. This is the best Housing Starts data we have seen in a long time.  […]

Housing Still Soft.

Housing Market Index (May 2015)   – Index 54. Previous was 56.   This is a survey index of members of the  National Association of Home Builders.  It asks their view of both the overall economy as well as housing market conditions. The ultimate measure of the health of the market is Housing Starts. The fact is that […]

Initial Claims & Inflation Remain Low.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/9/2015) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 264,000. Previous was 265,000. – New Claims totaled 242,640  an increase of 6,219  previous – 4-week Moving Average 271,750. Previous was 279,500. Continuing Jobless Claims are at a 15-year low.  Yet, per last week’s BLS Employment Situation Report were are seeing only mediocre gains […]

Signs of Weak GDP.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/8/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were  +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, and -7.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -6.0% Previous weeks were -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, and -16.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -3.5%. Previous […]

 
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