Author Archive

Oil and Jobs

We have seen jobs growth fall recently after a year or so of what was deemed healthy growth. So what’s wrong? If you look inside what caused jobs growth to increased and what caused growth to slow the answer is obvious.   From June 2009 to the end of 2014 40% of all the new […]

Durables Flat.

Durable Goods Orders (March 2015)    – New Orders month/month  +4.0%. Previous was -1.4% – New Orders year/year +0.7%. Previous was +0.6% – Ex-transportation month/month -0.2%.  Previous was +0.5% – Ex-transportation year/year -1.9%.  Previous was +1.2%. The only big industry ex-trans to show a gain was electronics. Manufacturing is flat.

Is Housing up or down?

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/18/2015) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 295,000. Previous was 294,000 – New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 279,097 a decrease of 28,102 from previous – 4-week Moving Average  284,500. Previous was 282,750.   PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (April 2015) – Level  54.2. Previous was 55.3.   New Home Sales (March 2015) – […]

Housing Data Requires Closer Read.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/17/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, and -3.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, and -5.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +2.3%. Previous […]

Chain Store Sales down.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 4/18/2014) – Store Sales year/year  +0.8%. Previous was +1.1%. This may be more about the moving nature of the Easter Holiday than about the economy.

Chicago Fed Index at Lowest in Past 12 months.

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (March 2015) – Level  -0.42. Previous was -.18 – 3 Month Moving Average  -0.27. Previous was -.12. This is a weighted average of 85 economic indicators.

CPI on Target at +1.8%.

Consumer Price Index  (March 2015) – CPI overall month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2% – CPI overall year/year   +0.0%. Previous was -0.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.2% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.8%. Previous was +1.7%. Consumer Sentiment (April 2015) – Sentiment  95.9. Previous was 93.0. […]

Housing Starts Remain Weak

Housing Starts (March 2015) – Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized 926,000. Previous was 908,000 – Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized   1,039,000.  Previous was 1,102,000. Two points can be derived from this:  1) the month-on-month increase was weather related.  The NE had a gain of 114.9%.  The West fell 19.3%. 2) the Housing sector is still dismal.  Starts […]

Mortgage Applications down after 3 Weeks of Gains.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/10/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, and +24.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -2.0%.Previous weeks were -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, and +22.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -2.3%. Previous weeks […]

Retail Sales up but Less than Expected.

PPI-FD (March 2015) – PPI-FD month/month +0.2%. Previous was -0.5% – PPI-FD year/year    -0.8 %. Previous was  -0.7% – PPI-FD core (less food & energy) month/month  +0.2%. Previous was -0.5 – PPI-FD core (less food & energy) year/year +0.9%. Previous was +1.0% – PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.0% […]

 
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