Author Archive

GDP down but Consumer Component Strong.

GDP (4thQ2014) – Real GDP quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized) +2.6%. Previous was +5.0% – GDP price index -quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized) +0.0%. Previous was +1.4%. The +2.6% growth is in line with expectations as opposed to the “what the heck was this” +5.0% of the 3rd quarter. Consumer Spending was up and that is a […]

Initial Jobless Claims at 15 year Low.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/24/2015) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted)  265,000. Previous was 308,000 – New Claims unadjusted, totaled 280,237 a decrease of 102,358 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted) 298,500.  Previous was 306,750. The headline weekly adjusted metric is at the lowest level in 15 years.   Pending Home […]

MBA Applications Flat.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/23/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -0.1%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -10.0%, +12.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and -5.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, -13%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -11.0% and -6.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -3.2%. Previous weeks were […]

Mixed Bag: Durables down, Consumer Confidence up.

Durable Goods Orders (December 2014) – New Orders month/month -3.4%. Previous was -2.1% – Ex-transportation month/month  -0.8%. Previous was -1.3%. Manufacturing is soft but is no longer very large part of the economy.  Dollar strength will make things worse because it will now be tougher for U.S. companies to export Durables because the will be […]

Modestly Positive Week for Housing Fundamantals.

Existing Home Sales (December 2014) – Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized  5,040,000. Previous was 4,920,000   Leading Indicators  (December 2014) – Leading Indicators month/month  +0.5% . Previous was +0.4%.   Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index  (December 2014) – Level -0.05. – 3 Month Moving Average  +0.39     PMI Manufacturing Index Flash  (January […]

Home Prices up.

Jobless Claims (week ended 1/17/2015) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted)  307,000. Previous was 317,000 – New Claims (unadjusted) totaled 380,934, a decrease of 148,530  from the previous week. – 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted) 306,500 Previous was 300,000 FHFA House Price Index (November 2014) – month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.6% – month/month +5.3%. Previous was […]

Wild Swings in Mortgage Applications.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/16/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -10.0%, +12.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, and -5.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +22.0%. Previous weeks were +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, -13%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -11.0% -6.0%, and -7.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +14.2%. Previous weeks were […]

Homebuilders Positive.

NAHB Housing Market Index (January 2015)   – Housing Market Index 57. Previous was 58. Any reading above 50 indicates growth. This is a survey index which asks homebuilders about present sales, sales expectations over the next 6 months, and foot traffic of prospective buyers.

Weak Retail Sales.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/9/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +24.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -10.0%, +12.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, and -1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +66.0%. Previous weeks were -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, -13%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -11.0% -6.0%, -7.0%, and +23.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +49.1%. Previous weeks were […]

Pre-BLS Jobs Data.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/3/2015) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted)  294,000. Previous was 298,000 – New Claims unadjusted totaled 425,399 an increase of 35,581 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted)  290,500. Previous was 290,750 The large post-Christmas seasonal adjustments make it difficult to judge is this data is good or […]

 
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