Author Archive

Weak GDP, Profits, and Sentiment.

1stQ2016 GDP – Real GDP quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized  +0.8%. Previous was +0.5% – GDP price index quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.6%. Previous was +0.7% – Real Final Sales of Domestic Products +1.02%. Commercial Investment, Inventories and Exports were all down. While this is improved from the first estimate it is still weak. If you […]

Pending Home Sales at Highest Level in 10 Years.

Durable Goods Orders (April 2016) – New Orders month/month  +3.4%. Previous was +1.9% – New Orders year/year  +1.9%. Previous was -2.9% – Ex-transportation month/month- +0.4%. Previous was +0.1% – Ex-transportation year/year   -1.4%. Previous was -2.1% – Core capital goods month/month  -0.8%. Previous was -0.1% – Core capital goods year/year -5.0%. Previous was -5.0% The DGO […]

Drop in PMI Services May Signal Weak BLS.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/20/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, and +2.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +0.4%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +0.5%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +3.0%. +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, and -8.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +2.3%. […]

New Home Sales at Highest Level since 2008.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 5/21/2016) – Store Sales year/year +0.4%. Previous was +0.5%. Is there a better word for “sluggish?”     New Home Sales (April 2016) – New Home Sales (seasonally adjusted annualized) 619,000. Previous was 531,000.  This is the highest level since 2008. This is +15.4% month/month and +23.8% year/year.  By […]

Supply Side Sluggish.

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (May 2016) – Index level 50.0.  Previous was 50.8. This is a survey index intended to measure activity on the supply side.  This reading is soft indicating once again that monetary policy stimulus has had little effect on the economy.

Existing Home Sales up.

Existing Home Sales (April 2016) – Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 5,450,000. Previous was 5,360,000 – Month/month was +1.7%. Year/year was +6.0%. While the increase in Existing Home Sales is a positive sign it is also a result of the fact that Housing Starts have yet to recover from the fall started in 2007.

Fundamentals Modestly Positive.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended May 14, 2016) – Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 278,000. Previous was 294,000 – Initial Claims unadjusted were 244,797a decrease of 17,099 from previous week – 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 268,250. Previous was 268,250 The week-to-week is down but the 4-week average is up.  There is still concern that we […]

Drop in Purchase Mortgage Applications.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/13/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week -6.0%. Previous weeks were +0.4%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, and -4.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +0.5%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +3.0%. +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, and +16.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -1.6%. […]

Housing Starts/Industrial Production up but Still Weak.

Consumer Price Index  (April 2016) – CPI overall month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI overall year/year  +1.1%. Previous was +0.9% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +2.1%. Previous was +2.2%. These increases were expected.  Inflation should be the most important […]

Housing Market Index Shows Continued Growth.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey  (May 2016) – General Business Conditions Index -9.02. Previous was +9.56. April’s gain was lost.     Housing Market Index – Housing Market Index 58.  Previous was 58. Buyer traffic and participation by first-time homebuyers remains weak reflecting weak economic growth and tougher mortgage qualifying mandates. This is a survey index […]

 
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