Author Archive

Jobless Claims at 14-year Low.

Jobless Claims (week ended 10/11/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 264,000. Previous was 287,000 – New Claims  totaled 271,590  an increase of 14,031 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average   283,500.   Industrial Production (September 2014) – Production month/month +1.0%. Previous was -0.2% – Capacity Utilization Rate 79.3%. Previous was 78.7% – Manufacturing month/month +0.5%. […]

Fundamentals Mixed. Volatility Enormous.

PPI-FD (September 2014) This measures inflation at the wholesale level. PPI-FD month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.0 PPI-FD year/year  +1.6%. Previous was +1.8% PPI-FD less food & energy month/month  0.0%. Previous was +0.1% PPI-FD less food & energy year/year    +1.8%. Previous was +1.6% PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month   -0.1%. Previous was  +0.2% PPI-FD […]

10-year Treasury Hits Forecast

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 10/11/2014) – Store Sales week/week  -0.7%. Previous was +0.1% – Store Sales year/year  +3.8%. Previous was +3.9%.   Redbook (week ended 10/11/2014) – Store Sales year/year  +3.8%. Previous was +5.4%.   NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (September 2014) – Optimism level 95.3.  Previous was 96.1. This is a survey of […]

Import/Export Prices down year/year

Import and Export Prices (September 2014) – Export Prices month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.5% – Export Prices year/year   -0.2%. Previous was +0.4% – Import Prices month/month -0.5%. Previous was -0.9% – Import Prices year/year  -0.9%. Previous was -0.4%. I find most important the fact that import and export prices have declined year on year.  Import […]

Jobless Claims Remain low.

Jobless Claims (week ended 10/4/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 287,000. Previous was 288,000 – New Claims (unadjusted) totaled 257,736  an increase of 30,056 the previous week. – 4-week Moving Average 287,750. Previous was 295,000   Wholesale Trade (August 2014) – Inventories month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.3%, This is another case of the supply side […]

Mortgage Application up Slightly.

MBA Applications (week ended 10/3/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were +0.0%, -0.3%, +5.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, -0.4%, -1.0%, -1.0%. +0.2%, +0.3%, and -8.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -0.3%, -7.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, -4.0%, and +4.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +3.8%. Previous weeks were -0.2%, […]

Fundamentals Positive but…

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 10/4/2014) – Store Sales week/week +0.1%. Previous was -0.2% – Store Sales year/year +3.9%. Previous was +3.6%   Redbook Store Sales (week ended 10/4/2014) – Store Sales year/year  +5.4%. Previous was +4.3%   JOLTS (August 2014) – Job Openings 4,835,000. Previous was 4,673,000. This indicates strengthening in the Jobs market. […]

Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 […]

Still Issues but Better BLS.

BLS Employment Situation Report (September 2014) – Nonfarm Jobs month/month +248,000. Previous revised up from 142,000 to 180,000 – Unemployment Rate  5.9%. Previous was 6.1%. – Labor Participation Rate 62.7. Previous was 62.8 – Labor Force -97,000 – Average Hourly Wage was $24.53.  Down for 2nd consecutive month – Average Workweek 34.6 hours up from […]

Prelude to BLS.

Challenger Job-Cut Report (September 2014) – Announced Layoffs 30,477. Previous was 40,010.   Gallup US Payroll to Population (September 2014) – Level 44.8%.  Previous was 44.9%.   Jobless Claims (week ended 9/27/2014) – Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted) 287,000. Previous was 293,000 – Initial Claims (not Seasonally Adjusted) totaled 227,110, a decrease of 12,920 from the […]

 
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