Author Archive

No Surprises in Fundamentals.

Consumer Price Index (January 2015) – CPI month/month -0.7%. Previous was -0.3%. – CPI year/year   -0.2 %. Previous was +0.7% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.2 %. Previous was +0.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.6 %. Previous was +1.6%. No surprises here.  Core inflation is modest and lower […]

Housing Flat.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/20/2014)   – Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and -10.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -8.0%. Previous weeks were -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, and -13%. – Composite Index Week/Week -3.5%. Previous weeks […]

Weak Data except for Home Prices

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/21/2015) – Store Sales year/year +2.8%. Previous was +3.2%   S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (December 2014) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.8% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month   +0.1%. Previous was -0.2% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year   +4.5%. Previous was +4.3% Prices are increasing […]

Young People not Buying Homes.

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (January 2015) – Level  +0.13. Previous was -0.07 – 3 Month Moving Average +0.33. Previous was +0.34 This index is national and is a weighted average of 85 different pieces of data.  January was strong in comparison with a weak December.   Existing Home Sales (January 2015) – Existing […]

Manufacturing Inches up.

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (February 2015) – Level  54.3. Previous was 53.7.

Low GDP Growth Delays Fed Rate Increases.

Initial Jobless Claims – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 283,000. Previous was 290,000 – New Claims unadjusted were 278,986,  a decrease of 45,213 (or -13.9%) from previous – 4-week Moving Average    283,000. Previous was 289,750   Leading Indicators (January 2015)   – LEI (month/month) was +0.2%. Previous was +0.4% Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey (February 2015)   […]

Housing Still Soft.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/13/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -7.0%. Previous weeks were -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -10.0%, and +12.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -16.0%. Previous weeks were -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, -13%, and -4.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -13.2%. Previous weeks were […]

Housing Market Softer?

Housing Market Index (February 2015) – Housing Market Index 55. Previous was 57. This is s survey index taken by The National Association of Home Builders asking builders how they view the Housing Market.  The report has some weaknesses particularly a 5 point drop in buyer traffic.  This could be due to weather.   E-Commerce […]

Import/Export Prices Continue to Decline.

Import and Export Prices (January 2015) – Export Prices month/month -2.0%. Previous was -1.0% – Export Prices year/year   -5.4%. Previous was -3.2% – Import Prices month/month -2.8%. Previous was -1.9% – Import Prices year/year   -8.0%. Previous was -5.5% There are at least 2 stories here:  1) increased oil production lower crude prices 2) weakness in […]

Weakened Growth.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/7/2015) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 304,000. Previous was 279,000 – New Claims (unadjusted) 323,672 an increase of 17,061 from previous – 4-week Moving Average  289,750. Previous was 293,000.   Retail Sales (January 2015) – Retail Sales month/month -0.8%. Previous was -0.9% – Retail Sales less autos month/month  -0.9%. Previous […]

 
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