Author Archive

Jobless Claims Remain Low.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/12/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 304,000. Previous was 302,000 – 4-week Moving Average  312,000. Previous was 316,750 – New Claims (unadjusted)  totaled 317,701 an increase of 17,512 (or 5.8%) from the previous week Initial Jobless Claims gets attention as a weekly surrogate for the health of the jobs market […]

Housing Starts up but Still at Low Level

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/11/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, and -4.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +7.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, -3.0%, -8.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +3.0%, and -2.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +4.3%. Previous weeks were […]

Inflation up. Chain Store Sales down.

Consumer Price Index (March 2014) – CPI month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI year/year +1.5%. Previous was +1.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +1.6%. Previous was +1.6%. This data is seasonally adjusted. The move up in inflation is of […]

Retail Sales up.

Retail Sales (March 2014) – Retail Sales month/month +1.%. Previous was +0.7% – Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.3% – Less Autos & Gas month/month +1.0 %. Previous was +0.3%. This is positive for 1stQ2014GDP.  Some of the gain may be due to delayed buying consequent to the bad winter weather the […]

Lowest Initial Jobless since May 2007

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/5/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 300,000. Previous was 332,000 – 4-week Moving Average 316,250.  Previous was 321,000. – New Claims (unadjusted) totaled 298,393 in the week ending April 5, an increase of 3,531 from the previous week. The last time initial claims were this low was May 12, 2007 […]

Purchase Applications up week/week but down year/year.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/4/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +3.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, and +12.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -8.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +3.0%, -2.0%, and +10.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -1.6%. Previous weeks were […]

Encouraging Fundamentals

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales  (week ended 4/5/2014) – Store Sales week/week +1.5%. Previous was +3.6% – Store Sales year/year +1.5 %. Previous was +0.6% Redbook Store Sales  (week ended 4/5/2014) – Store Sales year/year +2.9%. Previous was +2.3% The Consumer Metrics Daily Absolute Demand Index a measure of online shopping moved up sharply since the start […]

Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 […]

Modest Improvement in Jobs.

BLS Employment Situation (March 2014) – Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  192,000. Previous revised up to +197,000 – Unemployment Rate 6.7%. Same as previous – Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.0% – Labor Participation Rate 63.2% up from 63.0%

Jobless Claims low but Employment/Population Ratio Falls.

Jobless Claims (Week ended 3/39/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 326,000. Previous was 310,000 – 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted) 319,500. Previous was 319,250 – New Claims (unadjusted) were 289,535 an increase of 15,463 from the previous week. Jobless Claims are encouragingly low. Challenger Job-Cut Report (March 2014) – Announced Layoffs 34,399. Previous month was […]

 
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