Author Archive

Slow GDP Growth Continues.

GDP (1stQ2016) – Real GDP quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +1.1%. Previous estimate was +0.8% – GDP price index quarter/quarter +0.4%. Previous estimate was +0.6%. This is the BEA’s third look at 1stQ2016 GDP. Average GDP growth rate for the past 17 quarters is 1.89%. This despite near zero rates and massive increase in money supply. […]

Brexit.

Last week the citizens of the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU. First some history. The predecessor of the EU was called the European Economic Community which started in 1957. The original EEC consisted of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and West Germany. In 1963 and in 1967 the UK tried to joining […]

Thoughts on Brexit.

One issue is that the Brexit has not actually happened. The process should take at least 2 years and politicians could conceivable ask for a “Do you really, really want to do this?” referendum. This could have the effect of prolonging the recovery time for markets because now we have a black swan event which […]

Year/year Durable Goods Orders down 17 Consecutive Months.

Durable Goods Orders (May 2016) – New Orders month/month -2.2%. Previous was +3.3% – New Orders year/year +3.2%. Previous was +1.9% – Ex-transportation month/month -0.3%. Previous was +0.5% – Ex-transportation year/year -0.4%. Previous was -1.2% – Core capital goods month/month -0.7%. Previous was -0.4% – Core capital goods year/year -3.6%. Previous was -4.2%. This indicates […]

Mixed Fundamentals

Jobless Claims (week ended 6/18/2016) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 259,000. Previous was 277,000 – New Claims unadjusted, totaled 249,160 a decrease of 17,760 from previous – 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 267,000. Previous was 269,250 Although Initial Jobless Claims are a small part of the total movement in and out of jobs each month […]

It’s Housing Data Day.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/17/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, +12.0%, -5.0%, +5.0%, -6.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, and -1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +7.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, +7.0%, -4.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, +0.5%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +3.0%. +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, and -5.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +2.9%. […]

Housing Starts Remain Weak.

Housing Starts (May 2016) – Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,164,000. Previous was 1,167,000 – Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,138,000. Previous was 1,130,000. Not only are Housing Starts below the needed level of 1,500,000 but the gains are concentrated in 5+ unit apartment buildings. Homeownership is becoming more difficult and depriving middle-class people of the advantages […]

Is Trended Credit Data a Trojan Horse?

On June 25 we will see significant changes to how credit scores are calculated and how the FNMA underwriting system will make decisions on loans based on credit.  The underlying concept is called “trended credit.” The way credit reports have been done is to take a snapshot of what a borrower’s credit looks like at […]

Inflation on Target. Is the Jobs Market Softening?

Consumer Price Index (May 2016) – CPI month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.4% – CPI year/year +1.0%. Previous was +1.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month 0 +0.2%. Previous was +0.2% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +2.2%. Previous was +2.1% Nothing to see here.   Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/11/2016) […]

Industrial Production down.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/10/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were +12.0%, -5.0%, +5.0%, -6.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, and +0.3%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +7.0%, -4.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, +0.5%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +3.0%. +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, and -6.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -2.4%. […]

 
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