Initial Jobless Claims Remain low.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/1/2016) – Initial Jobless Claims, seasonally adjusted, 249,000. Previous was 256,000 – Initial Jobless Claims unadjusted, totaled 202,800, an increase of 4,345 from previous – 4-week Moving Average, seasonally adjusted, 253,500. Previous was 256,000   Challenger Job-Cut Report (September 2016) – Announced Layoffs 44,324. Previous was 32,188

The Utter Failure of QE.

As indicated by last week’s extremely weak (+0.69%) 4thQ2015 GDP the economy is weakening. We are in a manufacturing recession. Thursday’s Factory Orders release marked 14 consecutive months of year-on-year decline. One of the problems is that Fed monetary policy (QE) saw too little investment in real assets (plants and other infrastructure) and too much

The Fed in a Tight Spot of its own Making

  Apart from laws and regulations there are two important parts which the Federal government plays in the economy. One is fiscal policy – taxes and spending. This is in the hands of Congress and the President. The other is monetary policy. This is controlled by the Federal Reserve and consists, apart from times of

Why All This Data is Sometimes Useless.

While I report here each day economic fundamentals with a view as to how they are likely to affect interest rates yesterday was an excellent example of how this analysis and the technical forecast report each week in my newsletters is easily overrun by a major announcement.  Yesterday the Fed minutes indicated that the Fed

About the FOMC Meeting

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (May 2013) – 20-city, Seasonally Adjusted Month/Month +1.0%. Previous was +1.7%  – 20-city, not Seasonally Adjusted Month/Month 2.4%. Previous was +2.6% – 20-city, NSA Year/Year 12.2%. Previous was +12.3%. Hopefully, the slowing in the growth of housing prices is another sign of the housing market returning to normal as investors