Archive for the ‘Fundamentals’ Category

Inflation up. Chain Store Sales down.

Consumer Price Index (March 2014) – CPI month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI year/year +1.5%. Previous was +1.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +1.6%. Previous was +1.6%. This data is seasonally adjusted. The move up in inflation is of […]

Retail Sales up.

Retail Sales (March 2014) – Retail Sales month/month +1.%. Previous was +0.7% – Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.3% – Less Autos & Gas month/month +1.0 %. Previous was +0.3%. This is positive for 1stQ2014GDP.  Some of the gain may be due to delayed buying consequent to the bad winter weather the […]

Lowest Initial Jobless since May 2007

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/5/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 300,000. Previous was 332,000 – 4-week Moving Average 316,250.  Previous was 321,000. – New Claims (unadjusted) totaled 298,393 in the week ending April 5, an increase of 3,531 from the previous week. The last time initial claims were this low was May 12, 2007 […]

Encouraging Fundamentals

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales  (week ended 4/5/2014) – Store Sales week/week +1.5%. Previous was +3.6% – Store Sales year/year +1.5 %. Previous was +0.6% Redbook Store Sales  (week ended 4/5/2014) – Store Sales year/year +2.9%. Previous was +2.3% The Consumer Metrics Daily Absolute Demand Index a measure of online shopping moved up sharply since the start […]

Modest Improvement in Jobs.

BLS Employment Situation (March 2014) – Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  192,000. Previous revised up to +197,000 – Unemployment Rate 6.7%. Same as previous – Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.0% – Labor Participation Rate 63.2% up from 63.0%

Jobless Claims low but Employment/Population Ratio Falls.

Jobless Claims (Week ended 3/39/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 326,000. Previous was 310,000 – 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted) 319,500. Previous was 319,250 – New Claims (unadjusted) were 289,535 an increase of 15,463 from the previous week. Jobless Claims are encouragingly low. Challenger Job-Cut Report (March 2014) – Announced Layoffs 34,399. Previous month was […]

Encouraging ADP Private Jobs.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/28/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +12.0%, and -1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -8.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +3.0%, -2.0%, +10.0%, and +11.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -1.2%. Previous weeks were […]

Manufacturing Growing

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 3/29/2014) – Store Sales week/week  +3.6%. Previous was -1.5% – Store Sales year/year  +0.6%. Previous was +1.7% Redbook Store Sales (week ended 3/29/2014) – Store Sales year/year +2.3%. Previous was +3.1%. The movable nature of Easter (which is 3 weeks later this year than last year) affects this data. The Consumer […]

Chicago down, Texas up.

Chicago PMI (March 2014) – Business Barometer Index 55.9. Previous was 59.8. Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (March 2013) – Business Activity Index 4.9.  Previous was 0.3 – Production Index 17.1. Previous was 10.8. Manufacturing in Texas has increased 11 consecutive months.

Manufacturing Recovers Previous Month’s Loss.

Industrial Production (February 2014) – Production Month/Month +0.6%. Previous was -0.2% – Capacity Utilization 78.8%. Previous was 78.5% – Manufacturing Month/Month +0.8%. Previous was -0.8%. The important number is that Manufacturing recovered the loss from the previous month.  Because there had been so much bad weather in most of the country it is difficult to […]

 
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