Archive for the ‘Fundamentals’ Category

Positive Fundamentals today.

Jobless Claims (week ended 10/18/2014) – New Claims 283,000. Previous was 266,000 – 4-week Moving Average 281,000. Previous was 284,000. This is still low.   Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (September 2014) – Level     0.47. Previous was -0.25 – 3 Month Moving Average  0.25. Previous was 0.16. Both Employment and Production showed strength.   […]

Existing Home Sales Recover.

Existing Home Sales (September 2014) – Existing Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 5,170,000.  Previous was 5,050,000. – Existing Home Sales -year/year -1.7%. Most of the month/month gain is a recovery of the previous loss.   ICSC-Goldman Store Sales  (week ended 10/18/2014) – Store Sales week/week  -0.3%. Previous was -0.7% – Store Sales year/year  +2.1%. Previous […]

Fundamentals Mixed. Volatility Enormous.

PPI-FD (September 2014) This measures inflation at the wholesale level. PPI-FD month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.0 PPI-FD year/year  +1.6%. Previous was +1.8% PPI-FD less food & energy month/month  0.0%. Previous was +0.1% PPI-FD less food & energy year/year    +1.8%. Previous was +1.6% PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month   -0.1%. Previous was  +0.2% PPI-FD […]

10-year Treasury Hits Forecast

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 10/11/2014) – Store Sales week/week  -0.7%. Previous was +0.1% – Store Sales year/year  +3.8%. Previous was +3.9%.   Redbook (week ended 10/11/2014) – Store Sales year/year  +3.8%. Previous was +5.4%.   NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (September 2014) – Optimism level 95.3.  Previous was 96.1. This is a survey of […]

Jobless Claims Remain low.

Jobless Claims (week ended 10/4/2014) – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 287,000. Previous was 288,000 – New Claims (unadjusted) totaled 257,736  an increase of 30,056 the previous week. – 4-week Moving Average 287,750. Previous was 295,000   Wholesale Trade (August 2014) – Inventories month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.3%, This is another case of the supply side […]

Mortgage Application up Slightly.

MBA Applications (week ended 10/3/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were +0.0%, -0.3%, +5.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, -0.4%, -1.0%, -1.0%. +0.2%, +0.3%, and -8.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -0.3%, -7.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, -4.0%, and +4.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +3.8%. Previous weeks were -0.2%, […]

Fundamentals Positive but…

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 10/4/2014) – Store Sales week/week +0.1%. Previous was -0.2% – Store Sales year/year +3.9%. Previous was +3.6%   Redbook Store Sales (week ended 10/4/2014) – Store Sales year/year  +5.4%. Previous was +4.3%   JOLTS (August 2014) – Job Openings 4,835,000. Previous was 4,673,000. This indicates strengthening in the Jobs market. […]

Prelude to BLS.

Challenger Job-Cut Report (September 2014) – Announced Layoffs 30,477. Previous was 40,010.   Gallup US Payroll to Population (September 2014) – Level 44.8%.  Previous was 44.9%.   Jobless Claims (week ended 9/27/2014) – Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted) 287,000. Previous was 293,000 – Initial Claims (not Seasonally Adjusted) totaled 227,110, a decrease of 12,920 from the […]

Fundamentals Slightly Weaker.

MBA Purchase Applications (week ended 9/26/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +0.0%. Previous weeks were -0.3%, +5.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, -0.4%, -1.0%, -1.0%. +0.2%, +0.3%, -8.0%, and +4.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -0.3%. Previous weeks were -7.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, -4.0%, +4.0%, and -0.1%. – Composite Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were […]

Personal Income/Consumer Spending up.

Personal Income and Outlays  (August 2014) – Personal Income month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.2% – Consumer Spending month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.0% – Personal Income year/year +4.3%. Previous was +4.4% – Consumer Spending year/year +4.1%. Previous was +3.8%. Inflation: – PCE Price Index month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.1% – Core PCE price index month/month +0.1%. […]

 
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