Archive for the ‘Fundamentals’ Category

People Making more but not Spending more.

Personal Income & Spending (March 2016) – Personal Income +0.4%.  Previous was +0.2% – Personal Spending +0.0%.  Previous was +0.2%. People are making more but not spending more.  This is likely a sector based thing.   Employment Cost Index (1stQ 2016) – Index +0.6%. Previous was +0.6%. This measures wages/salaries and benefits.   University of […]

Housing Slowing?

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/22/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +0.2%, -7.0%, and +5.0%,. – Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%. +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, +16.0%, +16.0%, +0.3%, and +11.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -4.1%. […]

Durable Goods Orders Recover some of Previous Loss.

Durable Goods Orders (March 2016) – New Orders month/month  +0.8%. Previous was -3.1% – New Orders year/year    -2.5%. Previous was +1.6% – Ex-transportation month/month  -0.2%. Previous was -1.3% – Ex-transportation year/year     -1.4%. Previous was -0.6% – Core capital goods month/month  +0.0%. Previous was -2.7% – Core capital goods year/year   -2.4%. Previous was  -0.8% One could […]

New Home Sales Remain Weak.

New Home Sales  (March 2016) – New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 511,000. Previous was 519,000. This is weak. We should probably be happy with a level of about 700,000-800,000. Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey  (April 2016) – Production Index 5.8. Previous was 3.3 – General Activity Index -13.9. Previous was -13.6. This is a […]

Manufacturing Flattens.

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash  (April 2016) – Index level  50.8. Previous was 51.4. Just barely growing.

FHFA Home Price Index +5.6% year/year.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/16/2016) – New Claims seasonally adjusted   247,000. Previous was 253,000 – New Claims unadjusted totaled 241,862 a decrease of 28,557 from previous – 4-week Moving seasonally adjusted  260,500. Previous was 265,000 This datum is close to being the only one supporting the notion that the economy is healthy.  Even the […]

Existing Home Sales Recover Some of February Loss.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/15/2016) – Purchase Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +0.2%, -7.0%, +5.0%, and -2.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +3.0%. Previous weeks were +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, +16.0%, +16.0%, +0.3%, +11.0%, and +19.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +1.3% […]

More Weak Fundamentals.

Housing Starts (March 2016) – Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized  1,089,000. Previous was 1,194,000 – Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,086,000. Previous was 1,177,000 Single-family starts were 727,000 (annualized).  Permits were also down. This data is prepared by the Census Bureau which regards 1,500,000 starts as the level necessary to keep pace with population growth.  SFR Starts […]

Homebuilders See Modest Growth.

Housing Market Index (April 2016) – Housing Market Index 58. Previous was 58. This is a survey index.  The survey is conducted by The National Association of Home Builders.  This reading is good but not great – modest growth

Industrial Production/ Manufacturing down.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (April 2016) –  General Business Conditions Index 9.56. Previous was +0.62. This is the result of a survey of manufacturers in New York State.  While manufacturing is no longer very important to the economy of New Your folks look at the because it is the first regional manufacturing release each month. […]

 
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