Archive for the ‘Fundamentals’ Category

Weak GDP Growth just Got Weaker.

GDP (4th Q2014) – Real GDP quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +2.2%. Previous estimate was +2.6% – GDP price index quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.1%. Previous estimate was +0.0%. This is weak.  We should be targeting 4% annual growth.   Chicago PMI (February 2015) – Business Barometer Index  45.8. Previous was 59.4. This is the lowest […]

No Surprises in Fundamentals.

Consumer Price Index (January 2015) – CPI month/month -0.7%. Previous was -0.3%. – CPI year/year   -0.2 %. Previous was +0.7% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.2 %. Previous was +0.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.6 %. Previous was +1.6%. No surprises here.  Core inflation is modest and lower […]

Weak Data except for Home Prices

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/21/2015) – Store Sales year/year +2.8%. Previous was +3.2%   S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (December 2014) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.8% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month   +0.1%. Previous was -0.2% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year   +4.5%. Previous was +4.3% Prices are increasing […]

Young People not Buying Homes.

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (January 2015) – Level  +0.13. Previous was -0.07 – 3 Month Moving Average +0.33. Previous was +0.34 This index is national and is a weighted average of 85 different pieces of data.  January was strong in comparison with a weak December.   Existing Home Sales (January 2015) – Existing […]

Low GDP Growth Delays Fed Rate Increases.

Initial Jobless Claims – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 283,000. Previous was 290,000 – New Claims unadjusted were 278,986,  a decrease of 45,213 (or -13.9%) from previous – 4-week Moving Average    283,000. Previous was 289,750   Leading Indicators (January 2015)   – LEI (month/month) was +0.2%. Previous was +0.4% Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey (February 2015)   […]

Housing Still Soft.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/13/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -7.0%. Previous weeks were -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -10.0%, and +12.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -16.0%. Previous weeks were -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, -13%, and -4.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -13.2%. Previous weeks were […]

Housing Market Softer?

Housing Market Index (February 2015) – Housing Market Index 55. Previous was 57. This is s survey index taken by The National Association of Home Builders asking builders how they view the Housing Market.  The report has some weaknesses particularly a 5 point drop in buyer traffic.  This could be due to weather.   E-Commerce […]

Import/Export Prices Continue to Decline.

Import and Export Prices (January 2015) – Export Prices month/month -2.0%. Previous was -1.0% – Export Prices year/year   -5.4%. Previous was -3.2% – Import Prices month/month -2.8%. Previous was -1.9% – Import Prices year/year   -8.0%. Previous was -5.5% There are at least 2 stories here:  1) increased oil production lower crude prices 2) weakness in […]

Mortgage Applications down.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/6/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -7.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -10.0%, +12.0%, and +1.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -10.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, -13%, -4.0%, and -6.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -9.0%. Previous weeks were […]

Fundamentals Mixed

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/7/2015) – Store Sales year/year +2.1%. Previous was +3.8%   NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (January 2015) – Optimism 97.9. Previous was 100.4. This is a survey index measured by The National Federation of Independent Business.  Small Business Optimism is correlated with jobs growth.   JOLTS (December 2014) – […]

 
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