Archive for the ‘Fundamentals’ Category

Job Openings Increase.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (January 2016) – Level 93.9. Previous was 95.2 Small business owners (the ones who drive the jobs market) were a good bit less optimistic in January.  Falling equity prices and continuing bad world economic news are responsible.     Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/6/2016) – Store Sales year/year […]

Jobs Growth Weak, Exports Weak

BLS Employment Situation Report (January 2016) – Nonfarm Payrolls month/month (seasonally adjusted) +151,000. Previous was +262,000 – Unemployment Rate  4.9%. Previous was 5.0% – Private Jobs month/month change 158,000. Previous was  251,000 – Labor Participation Rate    62.7%. Previous was 62.6 % – Average Hourly Earnings month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.0% – Average Workweek – All […]

Manufacturing Is in Recession. Jobs Market Is Stalling.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/30/2016) – Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  285,000. Previous was 277,000 – Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 311,956 an increase of 16,296 from previous – 4-week Moving Average    284,750. Previous was 282,750 The jobs market which has been a positive part of the economy is starting to stall. Challenger Job-Cut Report – […]

Economic Growth Continues to Slow.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/29/2016)   – Purchase Index Week/Week -7.0%. Previous weeks were +5.0%, -2.0%, +18.0%,-15.0%, +4.0%, -3.0%, +0.04%, +8.0%, -1.0%, +12.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, and -3.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +0.3%. Previous weeks were +11.0%, +19.0%, +24.0%, -37.0%, +11.0%, +1.0%, +4.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +2.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, and -4.0% – Composite Index Week/Week -2.6%. […]

Confidence Remains Weak.

Gallup US Economic Confidence Index (January 2016) – Level -11. Previous was -11. This is a survey index of individuals.  To me it says that people are starting to realize that the economy is flat and that is starting to erode the rosy picture painted by media for the past several years.     Redbook […]

Income up, Spending not.

Personal Income and Expenses (December 2015) – Personal Income month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.3% – Consumer Spending month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.3% – PCE Price Index month/month  -0.1%. Previous was +0.0% – Core PCE price index month/month  0.0%. Previous was +0.1% – PCE Price Index year/year   +0.6%. Previous was +0.4% – Core PCE price index […]

4thQ2015 GDP Weak at +0.7%.

GDP (4thQ2015 1st estimate) – Real GDP quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized  +0.7%. Previous was +2.0% – GDP price index quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized  +0.8% . Previous was +1.3% This is weak but was expected to be weak.  I believe that people will start to recognize that 1) government policy be it fiscal or monetary has […]

We are Having a Manufacturing Recession.

Durable Goods Orders (December 2015) – New Orders month/month -5.1%. Previous was -0.5% – New Orders year/year  -0.6%. Previous was +0.6% – Ex-transportation month/month -1.2%. Previous was -0.5% – Ex-transportation year/year   -3.2%. Previous was -2.3% – Core capital goods month/month -4.3%. Previous was -1.1% – Core capital goods year/year   -7.5%. Previous was -2.5% What we […]

New Home Sales Highest in 8 Years.

MBA Mortgage Applications  (week ended 1/22/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +18.0%,-15.0%, +4.0%, -3.0%, +0.04%, +8.0%, -1.0%, +12.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -3.0%, and +16.0%,. – Refinance Index Week/Week +11.0%. Previous weeks were +19.0%, +24.0%, -37.0%, +11.0%, +1.0%, +4.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +2.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, -4.0%, and +9.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +8.8% . […]

Home Prices up.

Redbook (week ended 1/23/2016) – Chain Store Sales year/year   +1.0%. Previous was +1.4%   FHFA House Price Index  (November 2015) – month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.5% – year/year +5.9%. Previous was +6.1%. These are prices for homes purchased with FNMA or FHLMC loans only.   S&P Case-Shiller HPI (November 2015) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month […]

 
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