Archive for the ‘Fundamentals’ Category

4thQ GDP +2.2%

GDP 4thQ 2014  – Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +2.2%. Previous was +2.2%. – GDP price index seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.1%. Previous was +0.1%. This is soft and while GDP is supposed to be the best indicator as to the health of the economy the numbers reports are greatly affected by the estimates correcting […]

Jobs Market Healthy. Manufacturing Softer.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/21/2015)   – New Claims seasonally adjusted 282,000. Previous was 291,000 – New Claims unadjusted totaled 247,256  a decrease of 12,986 from previous – 4-week Moving Average -297,000. Previous was 304,750   PMI Services Flash (March 2015)   – Level  58.6. Previous was 57.0. Unlike the manufacturing sector, the service […]

Mortgage Applications up. Durable Goods down.

March 25, 2015 MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/20/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, and -7.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +12.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, and +1.0%. – Composite Index […]

Core Inflation Contained.

Consumer Price Index  (February 2015) – CPI month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.7% – CPI year/year -0.1%. Previous was -0.2% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month  +0.2 %. Previous was +0.2% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.6%. Previous was  +1.7%. The headline number reflects the rise in the price of gasoline. […]

Signs of Miserable 1stQ2025 GDP?

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index  (February 2015) – Level  -0.11. Previous was -.10 – 3 Month Moving Average  -0.08. Previous was +.26. This show the economy having a miserable 1st couple of months. Existing Home Sales  (February 2015) – Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 4,880,000. Previous was 4,820,000 This is an improvement from […]

Jobs Healthy. Rest of Economy Flat.

Jobless Claims (week ended 3/14/2015)   – New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 291,000. Previous was 290,000 – New Claims unadjusted were 259,671  a decrease of 18,254 from the previous week – 4-week Moving Average 304,750. Previous was 302,500. These numbers continue to show a healthy jobs market.   Current Account (4thQ2014)   – Current Account Deficit […]

Housing Starts down.

Housing Starts  (February 2015)   – Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized 897,000. Previous was 1,081. – Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized  1,092,000. Previous was 1,060,000. Since the Northeast region was down 56.6% some of this is weather related. Still, Housing Starts are simply showing little sign of recovering to the natural level of 1.500,000. The CBO forecast […]

Manufacturing Weakens.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (March 2015) – General Business Conditions Index  6.90. Previous was  7.78. This is a measure of manufacturing in New York State.   Industrial Production  (February 2015) – Production month/month +0.1%  Previous was -0.3% – Capacity Utilization Rate 78.9%. Previous was 79.1% – Manufacturing month/month  -0.2% . Previous was -0.3%. This data […]

Wholesale Prices Fall after January Record Drop.

PPI-FD – Wholesale Inflation (February 2015)   – PPI-FD month/month  -0.5%. Previous was -0.8% – PPI-FD year/year  -0.7%. Previous was  -0.1% – PPI-FD less food & energy month/month  -0.5%. Previous was -0.1% – PPI-FD less food & energy year/year   1.0%. Previous was +1.5% – PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.0%. Previous was […]

Mortgage Applications Flat

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/27/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, and +3.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, and +13.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -1.3%. Previous […]

 
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