Archive for the ‘Fundamentals’ Category

Mixed Message.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/25/2015) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 262,000. Previous was 296,000 – New Claims unadjusted totaled 250,815  a decrease of 28,982 previous. – 4-week Moving Average   283,750. Previous was 285,000. This is the lowest level of Initial Claims in 15 years.  One problem is that Initial Jobless Claims is only loosely […]

Another Weak Quarter of GDP Growth.

GDP (1stQ2015) – Real (inflation adjusted) GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.2%. Previous was +2.2%. – GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized -0.1%. Previous was +0.1%. Consumer Spending was +1.9% and that is the most important part of GDP.  That also means that the story that this was about bad weather is inaccurate.  GDP […]

Fundamentals Sluggish. FOMC Meeting Starts.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 4/25/2015) – Chain Store Sales year/year change  +1.4%. Previous was +0.8%.   S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (February 2015) – 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.9% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month +0.5%. Previous was -0.1% – 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year +5.0%. Previous was +4.5%. Consumer […]

Texas Hurt by Drop in Oil Prices.

PMI Services Flash  (April 2015) – Index Level  57.8. Previous was 58.6. Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey  (April 2015) – Business Activity Index -16.  Previous as -17.4. As I discussed in my newsletter of Friday the big business in Texas is oil.  Low oil prices have led to lower well count and nothing being ordered […]

Durables Flat.

Durable Goods Orders (March 2015)    – New Orders month/month  +4.0%. Previous was -1.4% – New Orders year/year +0.7%. Previous was +0.6% – Ex-transportation month/month -0.2%.  Previous was +0.5% – Ex-transportation year/year -1.9%.  Previous was +1.2%. The only big industry ex-trans to show a gain was electronics. Manufacturing is flat.

Is Housing up or down?

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/18/2015) – New Claims seasonally adjusted 295,000. Previous was 294,000 – New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 279,097 a decrease of 28,102 from previous – 4-week Moving Average  284,500. Previous was 282,750.   PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (April 2015) – Level  54.2. Previous was 55.3.   New Home Sales (March 2015) – […]

Housing Data Requires Closer Read.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/17/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, and -3.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, and -5.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +2.3%. Previous […]

Chain Store Sales down.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 4/18/2014) – Store Sales year/year  +0.8%. Previous was +1.1%. This may be more about the moving nature of the Easter Holiday than about the economy.

CPI on Target at +1.8%.

Consumer Price Index  (March 2015) – CPI overall month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2% – CPI overall year/year   +0.0%. Previous was -0.1% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.2% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.8%. Previous was +1.7%. Consumer Sentiment (April 2015) – Sentiment  95.9. Previous was 93.0. […]

Mortgage Applications down after 3 Weeks of Gains.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/10/2014) – Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were +7.0%, +6.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -0.2%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, and +24.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -2.0%.Previous weeks were -3.0%, +4.0%., +12.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, and +22.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -2.3%. Previous weeks […]

 
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