Archive for the ‘Fundamentals’ Category

Job Openings Flat.

International Trade (may 2015) – Trade Deficit  $41.9 billion.  Previous was $40.9 billion. Assuming that one consequence of Greece is a continued strengthening of the US dollar v the Euro, the trade deficit will increase and imports become cheaper and exports become more expensive. This will also keep commodity prices down.   Redbook Chain Store […]

Fed’s Labor Market Index Shows Weak Growth.

PMI Services Index  (June 2015) – Level 54.8. Previous was 56.8   Labor Market Conditions Index (June 2015) – Level   0.8. Previous was 1.3. This index comes from the Federal Reserve and 19 different pieces of data including the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and wage growth.   This may be a better indication of the […]

May BLS Weak

BLS Employment Situation Report (June 2015) – Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  223,000. Previous was 254,000 – Unemployment Rate  5.3%. Previous was 5.5% – Private Payrolls – month/month change   223,000. Previous was 250,000 – Participation Rate 62.6%. Previous was  62.9% – Average Hourly Earnings – month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.2% – Average Workweek – 34.5 hours. Previous […]

Housing Growth Restrained.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/26/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%. -4.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, -4.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, and +6.0%. – Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, -7.0%, +7.0%, -12.0%, -4.0%, +0.3%, -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, and -3.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week -4.7%. Previous […]

Pending Home Sales up.

Pending Home Sales Index (May 2015) – Pending Home Sales Index month/month   112.6. Previous was revised from 112.4 to 111.6. These are existing homes which are in contract for sale but have not yet closed. The downward revision to the previous month makes for a rather large gain.   Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey  (June […]

Consumer Sentiment Survey Strong.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2015) – Sentiment Index  96.1. Previous was 94,6. This is a survey index from the University of Michigan.  It is supposed to be a leading indicator of Consumer Spending in the next 60 days. This number is strong.

Personal Spending up.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/20/2015) – New Claims 271,000. Previous was 268,000 – 4-week Moving Average – Level 276.75 K 277.00 K   273,750. Previous was 277,000.   Personal Income and Outlays  (May 2015) – Personal Income month/month  +0.5%. Previous was +0.5% – Consumer Spending month/month +0.9%. Previous was +0.1% – PCE Price Index month/month  […]

1stQ2015 GDP Revised upward but still Weak.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/19/2015) – Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, -4.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +7.0%, +6.0%, and +5.0%,. – Refinance Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were -7.0%, +7.0%, -12.0%, -4.0%, +0.3%, -6.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, and +4.0%. – Composite Index Week/Week +1.6%. Previous […]

New Home Sales up.

Durable Goods Orders  (May 2015) – New Orders month/month  -1.8%. Previous was -1.5% – Ex-transportation month/month  +0.5%. Previous was -0.3%. A mixed report with no real signs indicating where the economy is headed.   Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 6/20/2015) – Store Sales year/year +1.6%. Previous was +1.1%   FHFA House Price Index (April […]

Inflation Contained, Jobs/LEI Healthy.

Consumer Price Index (May 2015) – CPI month/month  +0.4%. Previous was +0.1% – CPI year/year    +0.0%. Previous was -0.2% – CPI core (less food & energy) month/month  +0.1%. Previous was +0.3% – CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.7%. Previous was +1.8% Core inflation remains well contained.   Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/13/2015) […]

 
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