Initial Jobless Claims -414,000 for week ended September 3 -Up 2,000 from previous week’s revised 412,000 (was 409k) -4-week Moving Average 414,750, up 3750 from previous week -Going the wrong way. Chart below Trade Balance (July) Trade Balance for July was -$44.9 billion. The is the (X-M) component of GDP. The Trade deficit was smaller [...]

Sidetracked by market chaos so here’s my first Originations linkfest in a couple days. Most intriguing to me tonight are the S&P 500 correlations to Treasuries. As for Europe, I put the pieces in order starting with quick reads and ending with Michael Lewis’ full piece as weekend reading. Here you go… -Yes You Should [...]

Rates set a new 2011 low Wednesday, June 8 then rose slightly as mortgage bonds sold off of overbought levels—rates rise when bond prices drop in a selloff. Still, rates ended the week very low as uncertain U.S. recovery drives investors into bonds. Rates dropped early last week because: (1) a weak jobs report weighed [...]

Personal Income/Expenses: – Personal Income – Month/Month change 0.4% – Personal Income – Year/Year change 4.4% – Consumer Spending – M/M change 0.4% – Consumer Spending – Year/Year change 4.8% – Core PCE price index – Month/Month change 0.2% – Core PCE price index – Year/Year change 1.0% Income growth is fairly strong but being [...]

The good news is that rates begin the May 16 trading week near 2011 lows. The bad news is that it’s because of a frail economy. Rates drop when bond prices rise, and mortgage bonds have rallied the last four weeks on lower home prices, weak GDP, and low core inflation. Bonds are topped out [...]

Inflation is the theme driving rates higher this morning as mortgage bonds (FNMA 30yr 4% coupon) are down 22 basis points and the 10yr Note is down 31 basis points to yield 3.59. Average 30yr fixed mortgage rates (on loans to $417k) had been holding just below 5%, but if this selloff holds, it would [...]

Stocks are up slightly and bonds are even today after slightly higher consumer inflation and better than expected pending home sales reports are washing each other out. This even-rate, higher-stock mood kicks off a big week of inflation, home price, and employment data that could push rates up. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the [...]

Rates ended last week even, with 30yr fixed loans settling at 4.875% after a wild ride. Bond traders face tough choices right now: sell (rates rise) because rising oil and commodities are causing inflation? Or buy (rates drop) because bonds are a safe haven from turmoil in Libya? The tough choices are compounded when Libyan [...]

Bonds and especially oil are trading wildly today as markets sort through mixed data. Both are generally up as the Libya situation unfolds, and when bond prices rise on a rally, rates drop. As for oil, was as high as $103 today and now more like $97. Below are the data releases from today: jobs [...]

Rates are .2% lower today as investors flock to the safety of mortgage bonds (FNMA 30yr 4% coupon now up 50 basis points) while Middle East protests spread. It began in Tunisia, then Egypt, and now Libya where unemployment is 30% and citizens are again rising up against their leader Muammar Gaddafi. The difference with [...]