Here’s what the experts got wrong in 2011, and what they’re saying about 2012.
Archive for the ‘Treasury Bonds’ Category
2011 Was a Great Year for U.S. Treasury Debt
No imminent EU solution means Treasury yields and mortgage rates may drop more.
Rates Resilient As ‘Risk On’ Trade Continues
Today’s links explaining why stocks up and bonds down. But not all bonds: mortgage bonds steady, keeping rates low.
Rates Up .5% More By Dec? Barclays Thinks So.
Barclays co-head of interest rate strategy Michael Pond says the 10yr note will rise to 2.70 or 2.75 by year-end, which he says is fair value if economic data supports no recession—Bloomberg video below. He made two passing remarks about rates not rising this much if bond prices “get another bump from Europe” but was [...]
WeeklyBasis 10/9: Thanks For The Low Rates Europe
Rates rose .25% last week as mortgage bonds sold 4 of 5 days on (weak but) better than expected economic data. Rates rise when bonds sell, and rates have now risen to lose the entire dip that came after the Fed’s September 21 commitment to keep rates low.
Fundamentals 10/4: Will 10yr Note Hit 1.47% ?
Factory Orders -Factory Orders (August) were -0.2% -Previous was +2.4% -Consensus was -0.3% -Consumer was not keeping pace and we have seen supply-side data reveal that business is now bringing its thinking in line with the consumer.
Fundamentals 9/23: Targets For Treasury Yields
There are no fundamentals today. Treasury yields are up slightly is early trading. Recall that a little over a month ago, we pointed to a technical objective of 3.0% on the 30-year and 1.5% on the 10-year. The 30-year overshot that and the 10-year has another 0.25% to go.
Fundamentals 9/12
There are no significant fundamentals today. There are large Treasury debt auctions this week. When these occur folks look at bid-to-cover ratios and indirect participation. These are indicators of demand and foreign participation.
Fundamentals 9/6: Rate Lows Hold To Open Week
ISM Service Sector -Index for August was 53.3 vs. 52.7 in July. -Readings above 50 signal expansion in non-manufacturing sectors -Ten of the 18 service sectors reported growth. -U.S. service sector employs about 4 of every 5 U.S. workers. -Prices spiked, continuing a 25mo trend -Full report
WeeklyBasis 9/3: September Rate Outlook
Rates dropped .125% last week. This after dropping three straight weeks beginning July 25 then staying flat two weeks. The downtrend began with awful Q2 (and Q1 revised) GDP, then a mediocre-at-best July jobs report, then S&P’s U.S. downgrade.
