THE BASIS POINT

Jobless Claims Creep Over 400k, ISM Manufacturing 5mo High

 

Initial Jobless Claims
-402,000 for week ended November 26
-Up 6,000 from previous week’s revised 396,000 (was 391k)
-4-week moving average 395,750, up 500
-Weekly up but 4-week still holding under 400k mark under which job market is considered to be improving
Strong ADP jobs yesterday and this 4-week figure may mean better BLS jobs report tomorrow, but hard to predict.

ISM Manufacturing Index (November)
-Index was 52.7 vs. 50.8 for October
-Good news: 28 months of growth, and Nov was 5 month high
-Bad news: growth is slim
-For this index, 50 is dividing line between expansion and contraction

Retail
ISCS Chain Store Sales for November were +2.5% for same store sales. This does not back up the anecdotal reports of an extraordinary Black Friday.

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
For week ending 11/27 level was -50.2. Previous was -50.1. This is a weekly, random-sample survey tracking folks’ views on the condition of the U.S. economy, personal finances and the buying climate. It is another version of Consumer Confidence.

 

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