WeeklyBasis 11/28/05: Big Data Week Means Rates May Stay or Drop

This time last month, rates were in the third week of a month-long rising trend. It was the week leading up to the November 4 jobs growth report, and the report kept the rising streak alive another week. Since then, the trend started reversing. We’ve regained about .25% of the .5% in increases. Because of the rising streak, it’s no surprise that this morning’s Existing Home Sales figures (for last month) were slow. But we’ve got downward rate movement to open this week, mostly because of a underwhelming start to the holiday shopping season. However, there’s a lot of data in the coming days. We’ve got preliminary GDP Wednesday, manufacturing inflation figures Thursday, and most important, jobs growth on Friday.This is a difficult week to predict rate direction, but in my office, we bet on big data releases because it forces us to take a stand. My bet is for a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which means rates would stay even or go lower. Stay tuned.

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15 Year: 6.0% (6.14% APR)
5/1 ARM: 6.0% (6.15% APR)