Recap lots of U.S. data last 2 days. But rate markets only care about Europe.

Normally better U.S. economic data like today’s would cause rates to rise. But not today. Here’s why.

All today’s stats with charts. Generally good reports.

Jobs ADP private sector jobs for September were +91,000. The market moves with the BLS report two days from now. Last month ADP was at +91,000 and BLS was at +0. Go figure. Challenger Announced Job Cuts The number is an eye-popping 115,730. Up from 51,114. The two biggest employers laying folks off are the [...]

Jobs ADP private jobs for July +114,000. It is hard to get an accurate estimate for Friday’s BLS jobs report from the ADP report, and BLS is what counts. Last month BLS private jobs was 100,000 less than ADP. Also, it is likely that there will be a continuing loss of public jobs at the [...]

The likely scenario for tomorrow’s BLS Report is “better than last month but still weak.” Equities rallied and mortgage and Treasuries sold on today’s ADP jobs report (below), pushing rates higher. To keep pace with population growth while keeping the employment participation level constant, 121,000 new jobs are needed each month. The fact that today’s [...]

Rates were up .25% to end last week on perception of improving situations in Greece, U.S. housing, U.S. jobs, and U.S. manufacturing. This week is light on economic data (calendar below), and jobs reports will be the highlights. Rates are slightly lower to begin this week as mortgage bonds rally to regain some of last [...]

Jobs ADP Jobs +38,000 ADP Jobs is an early indicators of BLS which will be out Friday. ADP is weighted to private sector jobs and with public sector jobs declining this is not good news. Mortgage Applications Week-to-week changes in applications last week – Purchase Index – 0.0 % – Refinance Index -5.7 % – [...]

Mortgage bonds are in their third straight week of gains, trading just above their best levels of 2011 last set March 16. Rates drop when bond prices rise like this, and the benchmark FNMA 30yr 4% coupon that most lenders use to price consumer rate sheets closed up 16 basis points today, making a 13 [...]

Mortgage bonds are trading higher today (FNMA 30yr 4% coupon +28 basis points) which helps make up for yesterday’s 43 basis point loss. The two day net loss on bond prices means a slightly upward rate trend because rates rise when bond prices decrease. Yesterday the Conference Board’s March consumer confidence showed a decline, confirming [...]