Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence as measured by the Conference Board fell to 58.5. This is a survey not hard data and all too often is associated with high visibility items such as gasoline prices. With Personal Spending flat (see comments of yesterday) and Final Sales of Domestic Products moved down to +0.6% (annualized) it certainly [...]

Home Prices: Case-Shiller Home Price Index: – 10-city, not Seasonally Adjusted – Month/Month change -0.6 % – 10-city, Seasonally Adjusted – Month/Month change -0.1 % – 10-city, not Seasonally Adjusted – Year/Year change -3.6 % – 20-city not Seasonally Adjusted Month/Month -3.6%

Mortgage bonds are trading higher today (FNMA 30yr 4% coupon +28 basis points) which helps make up for yesterday’s 43 basis point loss. The two day net loss on bond prices means a slightly upward rate trend because rates rise when bond prices decrease.

Rates are .2% lower today as investors flock to the safety of mortgage bonds (FNMA 30yr 4% coupon now up 50 basis points) while Middle East protests spread. It began in Tunisia, then Egypt, and now Libya where unemployment is 30% and citizens are again rising up against their leader Muammar Gaddafi. The difference with [...]

It’s a day of conflicting data in rate markets. Consumer Confidence was up way more than expected and if this confidence translates into spending, it pushes rates higher. But offsetting this rate trade are two other pieces of data: home prices continue their decline, with today’s S&P Case Shiller report showing a sixth month of [...]

After a better rate day yesterday due mostly to a well-received 30yr bond auction, rates are even today after consumer inflation, retail sales, consumer confidence, and bank earnings figures. Following yesterday’s slightly hotter than expected business inflation report, today’s consumer inflation report confirms a relatively flat inflation environment—which helps keeps rates low. December’s consumer inflation [...]

Politicians Now Leading Financial Regulation Ronald Reagan said that “The taxpayer is someone who works for the federal government but doesn’t have to take the civil service examination.” Taxpayers pretty much own Freddie and Fannie, and the latest news is that U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-NJ) will be chairman of the House Financial Services Committee [...]

Can You Spot A Scam? Take This FDIC Quiz We all love con artists in the movies, but if you’re scammed in real life it’s anything but entertaining. Yet it happens every day. So you should take the FDIC’s Can You Spot A Scam Quiz to make sure you know how to avoid losing your [...]

2011 Mortgage Rate Outlook The Mortgage Bankers Association released their mortgage rate predictions yesterday. They expect rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2010, increasing to a 4.7% average in the first quarter of 2011, and climbing to 5.1% by the end of next year. Most late-2009, early-2010 [...]

Private Mortgage Insurance Improving On the mortgage insurance front, PMI will be increasing its maximum LTV to 97% effective October 8. It is a good sign for many in the industry, and loans must have a minimum 720 credit score, be in non-distressed markets, owner-occupied, conforming, originated only through a retail channel, etc. And it [...]