Consumer Sentiment -July sentiment 63.8, down from 71.5 in June -Lowest since March 2009

-June Consumer Sentiment worse at 71.8 -The Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan index averaged 89 in the five years leading up to the recession that began in December 2007

Leading Economic Indicators were +0.8%. I do not believe that LEI has been an accurate gauge of GDP as of late. It assumes that money supply increase and low interest rates will give GDP a boost. This has not been happening. Money supply and low rates are the dog’s head, but the tail (consumer spending) [...]

Stocks are up today (Dow +73, S&P +8) as global growth sentiment outweighs the “not-a-war” in Libya, fiscal crisis in Europe, Japan’s earthquake aftermath, and declining consumer sentiment. Bonds are slightly higher (10yr Note +3 basis points, FNMA 30yr 4% coupon +12 basis points) despite the stock rally and hawkish inflation statements from two Fed [...]

FBI Could Arrest Hundreds For Mortgage Fraud This week the the FBI could arrest hundreds for mortgage fraud. Charges are expected to be leveled over offenses ranging from pushing borrowers to lie about their income on mortgage applications to providing homeowners with false information about foreclosure rescue programs, the newspaper said.

Six More Bank Failures & Other FDIC Actions A high school fencing teacher had an affair with one of his female students. The whole situation was very sworded. I don’t know if anyone likes to think of their mortgage company engaging in sordid affairs, but I pity anyone who finds their company on this FDIC [...]

I am very excited, because last night I received news that I had won $5 million in the Netherlands lotto! Unfortunately I will receive $5 a year for a million years… Seriously, not a day goes by that I don’t receive some e-mail like, “Wherein your email address emerged as one of the online Winning [...]

US Bank Expansion, CIT Bankruptcy What do Bank USA, National Association of Phoenix; California National Bank of Los Angeles; San Diego National Bank; Pacific National Bank of San Francisco; Park National Bank of Chicago; Community Bank of Lemont, Illinois; North Houston Bank; Madisonville State Bank of Madisonville, Texas; and Citizens National Bank, of Teague, Texas [...]

One week ago the Personal Income & Outlays report came out showing that consumers have been making a bit more and saving quite a bit more—we’re actually saving the most since records started 50 years ago. Of course this affects spending and as you can see from the charts below, spending has been anemic in [...]

I want to warn people from Nigeria that if you get any e-mails from Washington DC asking for money, it’s a scam. Don’t fall for it! Or maybe from Charlotte, North Carolina. It’s been a while since I have seen anyone use the word “hoodwinked” in a sentence, but this reporter did in describing a [...]