3Q2004 San Francisco Real Estate Activity

You may remember my discussion about the economic rough patch we hit as the third quarter began in July. Economic data started coming in weaker. Jobs growth stagnated. Consumer spending slowed, and GDP followed suit. At the same time, the Fed began a campaign to bring the cost of funds off historic lows by hiking

WeeklyBasis 02/23/04: Oil Prices and Bond Sell-Off Keeping Rates Low

Rates/commentary for the week of February 23, 2004. Higher-than-expected consumer prices (CPI) released Friday caused a slight bond sell off, but rates held near all-time lows for today’s open. Higher CPI usually means inflationary pressure and higher rates are looming, but Friday’s figures were due largely to oil prices which tend to include artificial valuations

Marketweek 02/02/04: Greenspan’s Groundhog Day Forecast

Rates/commentary for the week of February 2, 2004.  Punxsutawney Phil, one of the world’s preeminent forecasters, saw his shadow this morning which means six more weeks of cold conditions.  And with 4th quarter GDP coming in colder than expected on Friday, preeminent forecaster Alan Greenspan seems to think that the economy is safe from inflation,

WeeklyBasis 01/26/04: Fed Meeting This Week, Expect No Change

Rates/commentary for the week of January 26, 2004. Rates opened near all-time lows Monday, then rose about .125% as investors sold bonds (which pushes yields up) to fuel a stock rally on positive earnings news. As earnings continue to pour in this week, we may see more of the same. In addition to earnings, the

WeeklyBasis 11/24/03: Rates Poised For Rise In 2004

Rates and commentary below are for the week of November 24, 2003. Last week was the lowest rate week since all-time record lows in June. This could change by the end of the Thanksgiving holiday. Despite being a shortened market week, it is heavy on economic releases. Revised 3rd quarter GDP, Consumer Confidence Index, October’s

WeeklyBasis 11/10/03: Rates Lowest Since 1960s

Rates and commentary below are as of November 10, 2003. Rates on 15yr and 30yr fixed loans are up about 0.2% from last Monday, but ARM rates are holding near their lows. No major economic news scheduled for release until this Friday, so the bond market and rates should be relatively calm until then. The

WeeklyBasis 11/04/03: Fastest GDP Growth In 20 Years

Rates and commentary below are as of November 4, 2003. Rates are up about 0.125% overall from last week. Not bad considering that 3rd quarter GDP grew at its fastest pace in nearly 20 years. This lofty economic growth figure posted last Thursday presumably would have had a more negative affect on the bond market

Marketweek 10/27/03: Home Sales Set New Record

Rates and commentary below are as of October 27, 2003. This is a big economic week, starting today with good news for Realtors about home sales. Existing home sales were up 3.6% in September, setting a new monthly record. The second-to-last Fed meeting of 2003 is tomorrow, and they are expected to leave rates unchanged.