Today's fundamentals: GDP better but jobless claims higher, and personal income flat, and consumer spending down.
Leading Indicators
Last two months of existing home sales data are inconsistent because of new regs that hit in that timeframe, but year-over-year data suggests healthier housing market.
Rates up slightly despite mostly weaker economic news today.
Here's five weeks of declining rates from the same source mass media uses.
Stats, charts, comments on all key economic data April 9-20.
Initial Jobless Claims -403,000 for the week ending October 15 -Down 6,000 from previous week’s revised 409,000 (was 404k) -4-week moving average was 403,000, down 6,250 from previous week -While the 4-week average continues to decline, this is not a picture of a healthy jobs market. It appears more as a picture of a jobs
Initial Jobless Claims -423,000 for the week ending September 17 -Down 5,000 from previous week’s revised 432,000 (was 428k) -4-week Moving Average 419,500, up 500 from previous week -Slight improvement but still weak Leading Economic Indicators LEI for August was +0.3%. This is a statistic calculated from other data and the low reading is the
Leading Economic Indicators were +0.8%. I do not believe that LEI has been an accurate gauge of GDP as of late. It assumes that money supply increase and low interest rates will give GDP a boost. This has not been happening. Money supply and low rates are the dog’s head, but the tail (consumer spending)
Initial Jobless Claims: -409,000 last week (previous was 434,000. Consensus was 425,000) -439,000 4-week average moving average -At present, 409,000 is considered relatively good for economy, bad for rates. -This datum was a shot of morning coffee as Treasuries sold on it but will likely recover as the day progresses. 409,000 Jobless Claims is not
Higher 2010 Rate Forecasts All Wrong At the start of the year, not only were the smartest guys in the room talking about how mortgage rates would go up when the Fed ended their $1.2 trillion purchase program, but that rates would be going up in general given the expected economic rebound. Of course, neither
Summary of Senate Bill’s Mortgage Provisions The big news du jour comes from Washington DC, where the Senate approved its version of overhauling our financial-sector regulations. The legislation passed the Senate 59 to 39 and must now be reconciled with a similar bill passed by the House of Representatives in December, before it can be
Oil Down, But Are Gas Prices? Scientists say they have developed a car that can run on water. The only catch: the water has to come from the Gulf of Mexico. That aside, it is interesting how the price of oil has gone from over $80 per barrel down below $70 per barrel, and, as
Goldman, US Bank Earnings Goldman announced its 1st quarter earnings today. Earnings rose 91% in the quarter, to $3.46 billion, up from $1.81 billion in the same period last year, while revenues increased 36 percent to $12.78 billion, up from $9.42 billion in the quarter a year ago. The bank’s bond, commodities and currency trading
Will Private Mortgage Insurance Return As Alternative To FHA For Homebuyers With Less Than 20% Down?
Largest Mortgage Lenders & Investors Who were, and probably still are, the largest mortgage lenders/investors in 2009? There were no real surprises. Private Mortgage Insurance Making A Comeback? PMI gave its clients some good news by reducing the minimum FICO score from 720 to 700 for CA, AZ, NV, DE, HA, NJ, and FL and
In Favor Of Bank Tax Yesterday I noted a few comments by Warren B. about the tax on banks. In an effort to give equal time, many feel that a bank tax is fine. They say that because the government is already giving the banks money at 0% and the banks are buying treasuries and
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