Leading Indicators

Fundamentals 10/20: Jobless Claims & Existing Home Sales Down

Initial Jobless Claims -403,000 for the week ending October 15 -Down 6,000 from previous week’s revised 409,000 (was 404k) -4-week moving average was 403,000, down 6,250 from previous week -While the 4-week average continues to decline, this is not a picture of a healthy jobs market. It appears more as a picture of a jobs

Fundamentals 9/22: High Jobless Claims & Quick Word On Operation Twist

Initial Jobless Claims -423,000 for the week ending September 17 -Down 5,000 from previous week’s revised 432,000 (was 428k) -4-week Moving Average 419,500, up 500 from previous week -Slight improvement but still weak Leading Economic Indicators LEI for August was +0.3%. This is a statistic calculated from other data and the low reading is the

Fundamentals 6/17: Consumer Spending’s GDP Impact

Leading Economic Indicators were +0.8%. I do not believe that LEI has been an accurate gauge of GDP as of late. It assumes that money supply increase and low interest rates will give GDP a boost. This has not been happening. Money supply and low rates are the dog’s head, but the tail (consumer spending)

Fundamentals 5/19

Initial Jobless Claims: -409,000 last week (previous was 434,000. Consensus was 425,000) -439,000 4-week average moving average -At present, 409,000 is considered relatively good for economy, bad for rates. -This datum was a shot of morning coffee as Treasuries sold on it but will likely recover as the day progresses. 409,000 Jobless Claims is not