Today’s fundamentals: GDP better but jobless claims higher, and personal income flat, and consumer spending down.
Last two months of existing home sales data are inconsistent because of new regs that hit in that timeframe, but year-over-year data suggests healthier housing market.
Rates up slightly despite mostly weaker economic news today.
Here’s five weeks of declining rates from the same source mass media uses.
Stats, charts, comments on all key economic data April 9-20.
Today’s data: jobless claims and FHFA home prices.
Initial Jobless Claims -403,000 for the week ending October 15 -Down 6,000 from previous week’s revised 409,000 (was 404k) -4-week moving average was 403,000, down 6,250 from previous week -While the 4-week average continues to decline, this is not a picture of a healthy jobs market. It appears more as a picture of a jobs
Initial Jobless Claims -423,000 for the week ending September 17 -Down 5,000 from previous week’s revised 432,000 (was 428k) -4-week Moving Average 419,500, up 500 from previous week -Slight improvement but still weak Leading Economic Indicators LEI for August was +0.3%. This is a statistic calculated from other data and the low reading is the
Leading Economic Indicators were +0.8%. I do not believe that LEI has been an accurate gauge of GDP as of late. It assumes that money supply increase and low interest rates will give GDP a boost. This has not been happening. Money supply and low rates are the dog’s head, but the tail (consumer spending)
Initial Jobless Claims: -409,000 last week (previous was 434,000. Consensus was 425,000) -439,000 4-week average moving average -At present, 409,000 is considered relatively good for economy, bad for rates. -This datum was a shot of morning coffee as Treasuries sold on it but will likely recover as the day progresses. 409,000 Jobless Claims is not