NBER

Why The NBER Was 1 Year Late Calling Beginning & End Of Recession

The National Bureau of Economic Research is the group that officially calls start and end points of recessions, and they said yesterday the recession ended June 2009. Below is their full rationale for backdating the end of the recession to June 2009. On December 1, 2008, the NBER officially said the U.S. was in recession

NBER Says Recovery Won’t Come Until 2010

The short term trade in bonds may keep rates lower for a bit longer despite today’s Fed statement that the economy is stabilizing. The National Bureau of Economic Research said that a recovery is not likely to be called until 2010. They are the organization that officially calls these things, and their timing is debatable.

Advance 1Q GDP -6.1%. Last 2 Quarters Are Largest Contraction Since 1947

Advance 1Q2009 GDP came in today at -6.1%, and combine with 4Q2008 GDP of -6.3%, these two quarters represent the largest economic contraction since 1947—since then, the economy has never contracted by more than 4% for two consecutive quarters. There are two more readings due for 1Q2009: the ‘Preliminary’ reading that follows today’s report comes

Final 4Q GDP -6.3%, Worst Report In 26 Years

Final 4Q2008 GDP came in today at -6.3%. This is the slowest quarterly pace of economic growth since 1982, back when average unemployment was 9.7% (vs. 8.1% as of February) and Michael Jackson’s Thriller was released—and went on to become the biggest selling album in history. As of December 23, 2008, -0.5% GDP was the

Preliminary 4Q GDP -6.2%, Final Number March 26

Preliminary 4Q2008 GDP came in today at -6.2%. This is the second reading for the period, following the -3.8% advance reading last month and preceding the final number that will be released March 26. This is the slowest quarterly pace since 1982, back when average unemployment was 9.7% (vs. 7.2% as of December 2008) and

Advance 4Q GDP -3.8%, Next Update February 27

Advance 4Q2008 GDP came in today at -3.8%. This is the first reading for the period, with the preliminary reading coming February 27 and the final reading in late March. Back in December, analysts called for -6% GDP for 4Q2008 and as recently as this week called for -5.5%. This -3.8% number is more favorable

Final 3Q GDP -0.5%, 4Q Expected -6%. Home Sales Weak.

Final 3Q2008 GDP came in today at -0.5%, which is even from the -0.5% second reading on November 25 and down from the -0.3% initial reading we got October 30. As of November 25, the -0.5% was the largest quarterly decline since the tail end of the last recession in 2001. Six days after that