Pending Home Sales (July) -Month/Month: -1.3% -Year/Year: +14.4% -Measures homes getting into contract for sale -Same old story: weak housing market

Jobs – Initial Jobless Claims 398,000 – 4-week moving average 413,750 -This is the first time since April that Initial Claims have been under 400,000. This datum, while encouraging, needs to stay below 400,000. The fact is that there is an enormous number of lost jobs and it is going to take years to recover [...]

MBA Mortgage Applications -Purchase Index: Week/Week -3.0% -Refinance Index: Week/Week -2.6% -Composite Index: Week/Week -2.7% – This makes it a bit harder to disguise the error in yesterday’s media fiction that the housing market was looking good. On the other hand…

Rates remain at 2011 lows on mostly weaker economic reports. Below is a recap last week to today, newest first. Mortgage bonds rise on worse news, causing rates to fall and vice versa, so headlines are categorized accordingly. Rates should hold this week, which is dominated by May jobs reports (Wed and Fri) with latest [...]

Personal Income/Expenses: – Personal Income – Month/Month change 0.4% – Personal Income – Year/Year change 4.4% – Consumer Spending – M/M change 0.4% – Consumer Spending – Year/Year change 4.8% – Core PCE price index – Month/Month change 0.2% – Core PCE price index – Year/Year change 1.0%

Rates ended last week near 2011 lows achieved March 16 when Japan’s earthquake aftermath and Libya’s revolution were both at highly uncertain stages. Mortgage and Treasury bonds were the safe bet then, and rates dropped as those bond prices rose on buying rallies.

Stocks are up slightly and bonds are even today after slightly higher consumer inflation and better than expected pending home sales reports are washing each other out. This even-rate, higher-stock mood kicks off a big week of inflation, home price, and employment data that could push rates up.

Rates are about even today after rising yesterday, and 30yr rates are about 4.875%. Yesterday, December’s New Home Sales showed a 17.5% increase in single-family home sales (way more than 3.1% expected), the Fed said the economy is still struggling, and there was a well-received 5-yr Treasury auction. The Fed announcement should have offset the [...]

Stocks and rates are up as investors look forward to economic improvement in 2011. Rates were a lot higher to begin the trading day, but bonds have since recovered a bit—if the recovery holds, rates will stop rising for the day. Late last week the Chicago ISM (Institute of Supply Managers) stats soared in December [...]

The National Association of Realtors today reported August pending home sales increased 4.3%, following an increase in July. The August 2010 number is 20.1% below August 2009. The data reflects home sales contracts signed in August and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief [...]