Trade Balance

Mixed GDP Components

Today’s fundamentals: Latest trade deficit data negatively impacts GDP. Also remember: holiday jobs data are wonky and can obfuscate early 2017 reports.

Increase in Trade Deficit Driven by Smartphones?

Trade Balance (November 2012) – Deficit for November was $48.7 billion.  Previous was $42.1 billion. Exports rose $1.8 billion month/month.  Imports rose $8.4 billion month/month.  The bump in imports may have been a spike due largely to imports of iPhone 5’s and Samsung Galaxy S3’s. This is the eXports – iMports component of GDP.  All

Fundamentals 10/13: Jobless Claims Creep Up

Initial Jobless Claims -404,000 for the week ending October 8 -Down 1,000 from previous week’s revised 405,000 (was 401k) -4-week moving average was 408,000, down 7,000 from previous week -Weekly creeping up from 400k-or-lower ‘improving’ line -The jobs market is still not healthy. Employers hire people when the anticipated increase in revenue generated by that

Fundamentals 10/13: Jobless Claims Creep Up

Initial Jobless Claims -404,000 for the week ending October 8 -Down 1,000 from previous week’s revised 405,000 (was 401k) -4-week moving average was 408,000, down 7,000 from previous week -Weekly creeping up from 400k-or-lower ‘improving’ line -The jobs market is still not healthy. Employers hire people when the anticipated increase in revenue generated by that

Fundamentals 9/8: Jobless Claims Creeping Up

Initial Jobless Claims -414,000 for week ended September 3 -Up 2,000 from previous week’s revised 412,000 (was 409k) -4-week Moving Average 414,750, up 3750 from previous week -Going the wrong way. Chart below Trade Balance (July) Trade Balance for July was -$44.9 billion. The is the (X-M) component of GDP. The Trade deficit was smaller

Fundamentals 8/11: Better Jobs Data, Graph Of Trade Deficit

Initial Jobless Claims -395,000 for week ended August 6 -Down 7,000 from previous week’s revised 402,000 -4-week moving average 405,000 -First time below 400,000 since April -Claims were 398k two weeks ago but revised to 401k In this Bloomberg piece, Alan Krueger of Princeton University explains his thinking about how we should start looking at

Fundamentals 6/9: Jobless Claims Up, ECB Rate Hike?

Initial Jobless Claims – 427,000 for week ended June 4, up 1,000 from previous week. – 4-week moving average 424,000, down 2,750 from the previous week. – These data indicate a continually weak jobs market. European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet indicated that the ECB would raise rates next month to contain inflation. April