August BLS Jobs Report Weak.

For several years I have been writing this numerically detailed analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report. I remain massively frustrated at the absolutely poor mainstream reporting of the jobs report.

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 households taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month.

Each item below is suffixed with (H) if it is from the Household Survey, (E) if it is from the Establishment Survey, and (B) if it is from both.

– Nominal Nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted, was +151,000 (E). Revisions to the two previous months subtracted 1,000 making the total increase (seasonally adjusted) since the last report 150,000.

Not seasonally adjusted data was +244,000.

– the size of the civilian noninstitutional adult population increased by 234,000 to 253,854,000 (H).

– 176,000 more people were in the labor force last month. These are people who are now working or, at least, state that they are looking for jobs (H). Year/year Labor Force was +2,402,000.

With a labor participation rate of 62.8% 147,000more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. With the adjustments for the previous 2 months we had 3,000 more population-adjusted jobs added. Essentially all of the numeric growth in jobs reflects the increase in the population and represents no real gain in the jobs market.

The Labor Participation Rate was flat at 62.8%. It was 62.6% a year ago. It peaked at 67.3% in April 2000. While much of the downward trend in Participation Rate is demographic (aging population) the underlying fact is that this smaller participating percentage is going to have to carry the economy and generate tax revenue to pay for the increasing cost of Social Security and Medicare.

– Nominal job growth last month was 150,000. This accounts for the changes for the 2 previous months.
– the Unemployment Rate was flat at 4.9%. It was 5.1% a year ago.(B)
– Average hourly earnings was $25.73 up from the previous month’s $25.70. (E)
– Average work week was 34.3 hours down from 34.4. (E)
– Private jobs were +126,000 (without adjustments for previous 2 months). Government jobs were +25,000. (E).

– Good producing jobs were -24,000. The two previous months were revised to +11,000 and -5,000 (E).

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult noninstitutionalized population who are part of the labor force) was flat 62.8%. It was 62.6% a year ago. (H) This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone’s attention. It is this 62.8% of the adult noninstitutionalized population who get pay checks and contribute to GDP.
Last month BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:
– Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 3,791,000 up 52,000 from previous month’s Job Losers and down 223,000 year-on-year. (H)

– Job leavers was 885,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This is up 61,000 from previous month and up 184,000 year-on-year. (H)

-Reentrants was 2,271,000. Reentrants are previously employed people who were looking for a job and found one. This was -27,000 from the previous month and -173,000 year-on-year.(H)

-New entrants were 861,000. These are people who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was +35,000 from previous month and +15,000 year-on-year.

One line in the BLS Report is termed “people employed part-time for economic reasons.” These are people who want to work full time but their employer, for whatever reason, decide to employ them only part-time. In this month’s report this figure was up 113,000 at 6,053,000.

Professional and Business added 22,000. Leisure and Hospitality added 29,000. Food Services and Drinking added 34,000. Health care and Social Services added 36,000.

Average hours worked for men was 40.9 hours/week. Average hours worked for women was 36.3. This remains the largest source of the gender pay gap. http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea27.htm

This report is very disappointing. The previous two were good but this report showing essentially zero gain in population adjusted jobs show that despite media hype the jobs market is showing a dead flat economy.