Comments on GDP, Jobless Claims, ADP Jobs

2Q2012 GDP
– 1Q2012 GDP was revised downward from +2.2% to +1.9%
– This is the second of 3 readings. Third and final reading next month
– GDP Deflator (an index of inflation weighted by relative contributions to GDP) was +1.7%

– The fact is that neither Keynesian fiscal policy or aggressive monetary policy has created lasting GDP growth. The consumer is still saddled with debt, jobs are hard to find, business are reticent to invest and banks are reticent to lend. Politicians make the problem worse by dividing people rather than uniting them.

ADP Jobs
– The BLS Employment Situation Report is tomorrow.

– ADP Private Jobs (May 2012) +133,000. Previous was revised from +119,000 to +113,000. We need about 108,000 more total jobs to keep pace the Employment Participation Ratio the same to accommodate population growth. About 83% of jobs are private sector jobs. Therefore we need about 90,000 more private jobs per month to keep pace with population growth. Except for a nice spike in 2ndQ2010 job growth has been miserable.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/26/2012)
– Initial Claims were 383,000. Up from previous 370,000.
– 4-Week Moving Average was 374,500.
– Initial Claims are a further indication of the extremely slow nature of economic growth.

Challenger Job-Cut Report (May 2012)
– Announced Layoffs during May were 61,887.

– With two weeks of very weak fundamentals and massive uncertanty in the EU, we are seeing US Treasury yields again setting record lows. I have been pointing out for over 6 months that the technical objective for the 10-year Note was 1.46%. We were as low as 1.57% this morning.