THE BASIS POINT

Drop in PMI Services May Signal Weak BLS.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/20/2016)

– Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -1.0%, and +2.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week +0.4%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +0.5%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +3.0%. +11.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, -6.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, and -8.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week +2.3%. Previous weeks were -1.6%, +0.4%, -3.4%, -4.1%, +1.3%, +10.0%, +2.7%, -1.0%, -3.3%, -3.3%, +0.2%, and -4.8%.

The question begging for an answer is whether the very large gain seen yesterday in Existing Home Sales will hold up.

 
Goods Trade Deficit  (April 2016)

– Deficit  $57.5 billion Previous was $55.6 billion
– Exports month/month +1.8%. Previous was -2.1%
– Imports month/month +2.3%. Previous was -5.8%.

 
FHFA House Price Index (March 2016)

– month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.5%
– year/year +6.1%. Previous was +5.6%

Increasing Home Prices make homeownership more difficult.

 
PMI Services Flash (April 2016)

– Level 51.2. Previous was 52.1.