Fundamentals 10/12: Mortgage Apps, Consumer Outlook

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ending 10/7)
-Purchase Index +1.3%
-Refinance Index +1.3%
-Composite Index +1.3%

Consumer Metrics
This is an analysis by Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics. Rick uses on-line spending as a leading indicator.

“We continue to analyze our data in an effort to understand what recent on-line consumer behavior can tell us about the current U.S. economy. The changes in our consumers’ behavior since late in the second quarter are just now beginning to show up in the widely reported (but substantially lagging) retail and housing surveys, and judging from the multi-month persistence of the changes in our data we can expect that more lagging surveys will continue to look good (at least from a year-over-year perspective) for at least the next quarter. Meanwhile we can also expect that the broader economic data (which is yet even more lagging) will continue to deteriorate, following the downward tendencies of our data during most of the first and second quarters of 2011.”