Fundamentals 10/13: Jobless Claims Creep Up

Initial Jobless Claims
-404,000 for the week ending October 8
-Down 1,000 from previous week’s revised 405,000 (was 401k)
-4-week moving average was 408,000, down 7,000 from previous week
-Weekly creeping up from 400k-or-lower ‘improving’ line
-The jobs market is still not healthy. Employers hire people when the anticipated increase in revenue generated by that hiring exceeds the cost of employment. Most businesses see no chance of gaining through new hiring and continue to stand pat.
Jobless Claims

This is the (eXports-iMports) in the formula for GDP=C+G+I+(X-M). If Consumer Spending goes up and X-M goes down by the same amount then GDP is unchanged. The Trade Balance (X-M) for August was -$45.6 billion. Previous was -$44.8 billion. Consensus was -$46.0 billion. A great deal of the changes in exports and imports have to do with volatile commodity prices. Food is exported. Oil imported. However businesses are holding back on importing consumer goods and capital equipment. The same uncertainty on the part of business holding back hiring is holding back imports.

U.S Treasury Budget
It is difficult at associate the word “budget” with this but in August Treasury spend $134.2 billion more than it tool in. Fiscal YTD, Treasury spent $1.23 trillion more than it took in.