THE BASIS POINT

Fundamentals 11/1: Manufacturing Slow Growth

Retail
-ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, Week/Week +0.7%. Previous -0.8%
-ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, Year/Year +3.0%. Previous 2.4%
-Redbook Store Sales, Year/Year +5.2%. Previous +4.1%
Consumer Metrics Absolute Demand Index has been moving down for the past 4 days. This nearly real time index forecasted the increase in 3rdQ2011 GDP and, at present, appears to be showing consumer spending flattening.

ISM Manufacturing Index
-ISM Manufacturing Index October = 50.8
-September was 51.6
-50 is dividing line between expansion and contraction.
-Good news: 27th months of growth. Bad news: barely growing.
-This could become another case where the wholesale side is reacting to last quarter’s data just as the consumer stopped increasing spending.